15 October 2001, 09:33 OUTLOOK Eurogroup to meet tonight amid ECB rate decision disappointment
----by Victoria Main----
BRUSSELS (AFX) - Eurogroup finance ministers are expected to
express disappointment at a meeting tonight in Luxembourg at the
European Central Bank's failure to cut interest rates last week to
revive the faltering euro zone economy.
EU sources hinted ECB vice-president Christian Noyer, who will
attend the meeting, will come under fire for the ECB governing council
decision on Thursday to keep rates on hold. "The ECB will obviously
provide food for thought," one source said.
Signs of eurogroup discontent at the decision came on Friday.
French Finance Minister Laurent Fabius was reported in the weekend
edition of the Financial Times as saying he was pleased rates have
fallen since last month's terrorist attacks against the US, "even if
the central bank yesterday declined to take a further step as some
people -- including myself -- wanted." The FT also reported that
Luxembourg Finance Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, who is also prime
minister, echoed the French minister's criticism.
Already the previous week, Fabius had called for a rate cut,
saying, "it would be important in terms of confidence and a feeling
that we are reacting to the situation." Eurogroup spokesman Didier
Reynders, who is also Belgium's finance minister, also argued that the
ECB has "more room for manoeuvre".
However, ECB president Wim Duisenberg, justifying the decision to
keep rates on hold, said the bank has "very little" room to move and
that the exceptional 50 basis point reduction on Sept 17 was sufficient
for the moment.
Otherwise, EU sources said ministers are likely to arrive at
similar conclusions during their discussion on the economic situation
this year and next to those reached three weeks ago at their last
meeting, in Liege, Belgium.
"Not so much time has passed between Liege and now," one source
said.
At that time, European economic and monetary affairs commissioner
Pedro Solbes forecast economic growth in the euro zone would be
"clearly below 2.0 pct" in 2001 as a result of the downturn exacerbated
by the terrorist attacks against the US on Sept 11. A few weeks
earlier, growth was forecast at about 2.0 pct or slightly below that
level.
Since then however, Solbes has appeared marginally more
pessimistic, saying last week that euro zone growth will be "over 1
pct, but clearly below 2 pct" in 2001. Equally, Reynders last week
mentioned a lower limit for the region's growth, saying it will be
between 1.5 pct and 2.0 pct.
Euro zone economic figures released since the Liege meeting have
fuelled fears of recession.
Of particular concern was the fall in the index measuring services
sector activity in the euro zone to below 50 in September for the first
time ever, signifying contraction. Compounding the bad news was the
slump in the euro zone's business climate indicator to minus 0.57 in
September from minus 0.46 in August.
At the time, economists concluded the ECB was under pressure to cut
rates in a bid to boost growth, even if they agreed with euro zone
political leaders and central bankers that the region is not yet in
recession.
Also on the eurogroup agenda is the countdown to the introduction
of euro notes and coins on Jan 1. A European Commission report released
last week concluded that small businesses are still unprepared for the
transition and that the Sept 11 attacks have distracted the attention
of those involved in the changeover.
The eurogroup will consider moves to crack down on the financing of
terrorism and money-laundering as well as following up the discussion
on globalisation at the Liege meeting of EU finance ministers.
The 2002 budget plans of Austria, Finland, the Netherlands and
Spain will come under scrutiny at the meeting. Sources said the
proposals are unlikely to pose any problems.
The eurogroup meeting, beginning at 8.00 pm, will serve as a
curtain-raiser to Tuesday's gathering of EU finance ministers.
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