15 October 2001, 09:02 OUTLOOK US economic data to show early signs of effect of Sept 11 attacks
WASHINGTON (AFX) - US economic data to be released this week are
expected to show the beginning effects of the Sept 11 terrorist attacks
on an already bruised US economy, analysts said.
"Secondary negative effects from the attacks on economic conditions
are now underway," said John Youngdahl of Goldman Sachs in New York.
Corporations are expected to have well-stocked shelves as demand
decreased following the September attacks.
"With the negative shock to demand in the wake of (Sept 11), actual
inventories likely swelled; with a weaker-than-expected demand
condition, more production cuts will be needed," said Mickey Levy of
Banc of America Securities in New York.
Industrial output is likely to continue its steady decline that has
occurred over the past year.
"With aggregate hours worked in manufacturing off another 1.2 pct
in September and down almost 9 pct in the past year, another decline in
production was likely recorded in the month," Levy said adding, "with
household and business demand further suppressed by the terrorist
attacks, further inventory adjustment -- with several additional months
of production declines -- is likely."
Housing starts are expected to decline after having fallen the
month prior to the lowest level in nearly a year.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.3 pct,
following a four times larger-than-expected 0.4 pct rise in the
producer price index for September, but analysts said inflation should
not be a concern as the increases came primarily from energy prices.
The core rate is expected to increase a modest 0.2 pct.
"Anticipate a relatively friendly inflation report, with an easing
in energy prices and significant price discounting on various goods and
services ranging from cars to apparel to airfares," said Lynn Reaser of
Banc of America Capital Management in St. Louis.
Following are the consensus forecasts of Wall Street economists for
data to be released next week.
AUGUST BUSINESS INVENTORIES, Today (8.30 am): Economists expect
business inventories to have declined 0.2 pct in August after they fell
0.4 pct in July, the sixth monthly decline in inventories.
SEPTEMBER INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, Tuesday (9.15 am): Economists
forecast that September industrial output has fallen 0.7 pct after
declining 0.8 pct in August, the eleventh consecutive decline in
industrial output.
SEPTEMBER HOUSING STARTS, Wednesday (8.30 am): Housing starts for
September are expected to have fallen 2.0 pct to 1.496 mln units in
September after falling 6.9 pct to 1.527 mln units in August. The
August level is the lowest level of monthly housing starts since
October 2000.
GREENSPAN TESTIMONY, Wednesday (10.00 am): Federal Reserve Board
Chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to testify on monetary policy and
the US economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee of
Congress.
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS, Thursday (8.30 am): Forecasts indicate that
weekly initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits for the
week ended Oct 13 rose by 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000 after
claims dropped 67,000 to 468,000 for the week ended Oct 6.
SEPTEMBER CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, Friday (8.30 am): Economists say
that consumer prices rose 0.3 pct in September while the core rate,
which excludes food and energy prices, is also expected to rise 0.2
pct. Headline consumer prices rose 0.1 pct while the core rate rose 0.2
pct in August.
AUGUST TRADE DEFICIT, Friday (8.30 am): Economists expect the
August trade deficit to have narrowed to 28.7 bln usd in August after
it was reported at 28.8 bln usd in July.
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