10 October 2001, 13:07 Japan Cabinet Office leaves assessment unchanged; economy still deteriorating
OKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The Cabinet Office left unchanged its key
economic assessment, saying the economy continues to deteriorate,
reflecting the continued sluggishness of the corporate activity.
"The economy continues to deteriorate," the Cabinet Office said in
the September economic report, submitted to the cabinet and unchanged
from the assessment in the August report.
"While economic activity continues to deteriorate, the pace of the
ongoing deterioration has not gained stronger momentum," Cabinet Office
economist Haruhi to Arai said, explaining the reason for maintaining
the assessment.
The Cabinet Office also warned of the increased risk surrounding
already flagging economic activity in Japan following the Sept 11
terrorist attacks on the US.
"As for short-term prospects, concerns have intensified with the
adverse effects of the series of terrorist attacks in the US on the
global economy," the Cabinet Office.
Arai said a full picture of the impact of the Sept 11 terrorist
attacks and the retaliation by the US and its allies against
Afghanistan remains to be seen.
"We did not see serious confusion or collapse of the global capital
markets, which were our initial concerns, thanks to policy coordination
by each country," Arai said.
"Crude oil prices, which could harm economic activity, have come
down to levels seen prior to the terrorist attacks.
"From now on, we need to pay closer attention to how actual
economic activity progresses, US consumer spending in particular," Arai
added.
Arai also cautioned of the underlying risk of for Japanese exports
of a further slowdown in the US following the Sept 11 attacks.
"Exports have fallen considerably in recent months so it is hard to
think that the pace of decline will accelerate further ... but the
sluggish economic performance in the US will certainly delay any
rebound of export activity in Japan."
The Cabinet Office downgraded its assessment on the trend of
corporate profit and sentiment in light of the poor outcome of the last
Tankan survey by the Bank of Japan.
In the survey, the large manufacturers' diffusion index (DI) came
in at minus 33, compared with market forecasts of minus 24-31 and minus
16 in the June report.
The large non-manufacturers' DI came in at minus 17, compared with
market forecasts of minus 15-20 and minus 13 in the June report.
"It seems that hopes for a recovery in the second half led by a
rebound in the US economy, which was seen in the June report, have
receded," Arai said.
The Cabine Office also pointed to the spill-over of sluggish
corporate activity into the household sector, saying that some consumer
spending data are showing "weakness recently," citing poor home
electronics and auto sales figures.
"However, it is still hard to judge whether consumer spending has
entered a falling cycle," Arai said.
The Cabinet Office said that despite some weakness seen in recent
data, the overall trend of consumer spending is "flat."
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved