1 October 2001, 15:18 Forex - Major currencies rangebound in midday trade, Tankan survey knocks yen
LONDON (AFX) - The major currencies remained rangebound in midday
trade, but the dollar firmed against the yen after a disappointing
Tankan survey in Japan and sterling remained in demand after
stronger-than-expected PMI data.
The dollar remains well supported, especially against the yen, with
BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard confident it will go
higher.
"Looking at past experience, the BoJ has been extremely effective
in weakening the yen," said Stannard. "In 1999/2000 it was very
effective at defending the 100 level and pushing dollar/yen higher."
The Bank of Japan's September Tankan survey of business sentiment
provided further impetus to the dollar. The survey showed a rapid
deterioration which is likely to worsen sharply in coming quarters.
"The situation in Japan also shows that Japan is caught in a
deflationary trap," said Stannard. "Having exhausted all its fiscal and
most of its monetary tools, it is only left with depreciation."
Michael Klawitter, a strategist at WestLB, agrees and said a,
"weaker currency seems to be one of the few means left to the
government to prevent deflation doing even more harm to the Japanese
economy."
Dollar/yen is also vulnerable on the upside even without further
BoJ intervention, said Klawitter, from the fact that, "speculative
accounts increased their long yen position close to this year's record
high."
Klawitter also thinks that the dollar is further supported from the
expected 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the New York Federal
Reserve tomorrow.
Reserve should even strengthen the US currency as the market focus
is once again on growth rather than interest rate differentials, he
said.
"In this environment, speculative accounts who already hold a large
dollar short position will hardly increase their bet further, which
also adds to the dollar's upwards bias," he said.
The key focus for dollar bears, he added, is Friday's release of
the September labour market report.
The euro is gaining ground against the yen and is up against the
dollar largely on a corrective bounce, which is not sustainable, said
BNP Paribas' Stannard.
The euro will come under pressure, he said, as risk appetite
returns to the market-place following the unease generated by the
terrorist attacks on Sept 11. "We are starting to see a bit of risk
appetite return to the market, which is positive for the dollar as
investors return to asset markets from their cash positions," he said.
The International Monetary Fund's data last week also showed that
the long-euro positions were at historic highs, said Stannard.
Talk of a renewed appetite for M&A activity may affect the euro as
well, he said, especially if it involves outflows from the euro zone.
Though this isn't a major factor at the moment, "it should be closely
looked at," he said.
Weekend reports suggested that WestLB, the German bank, is
considering a 25 bln stg bid for British Telecommunications PLC's
entire fixed-line telephone net work later this autumn. Another
suggested that Siemens AG, the German electronics giant, is considering
a possible tie-up with Motorola Inc.
Today's publication of the September's purchasing managers' index
has not helped sentiment towards the euro either, dealers said.
Euro zone manufacturing sector PMI fell to a seasonally adjusted
45.9 in September from 47.5 in August, according to market sources. The
result is the worst performance for four years.
Meanwhile, sterling continues to gallop along, largely from a
domestic growth perspective, when compared with other major economies,
said Stannard.
The latest good news came from the UK Chartered Institute of
Purchasing and Supply, whose PMI showed a better-than-expected rise to
46.5 in September from an unrevised 46.4 in the previous month.
Longer-term though, Stannard remains sceptical about sterling's
prospects, as the market's risk appetite picks up and the UK's trade
position is assessed.
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