1 October 2001, 10:50  Japan's current recession deeper than 1999 - Kokusai Sec economist

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - Kokusai Securities economist Kazuo Mizuno said that following the September Tankan outcome he now expects that the recession which Japan is facing to be deeper than that in 1999. He said that he expects that large manufacturers' diffusion index in the Tankan survey will fall to minus 51 or less in the March or June report next year. "I think the bottom will be deeper than the bottom which Japan faced in 1999," Mizuno said, adding that it is still uncertain if the economy will begin to recover by June. Mizuno said he forecasts that the large manufacturers' diffusion index in December will come in worse than the Bank of Japan forecast of minus 31, possibly at around minus 40. "If we take into account the negative impact of the terrorist attacks in the US, the December index of large manufacturers will come in below the September figure," he said, adding that the September DI for large manufacturers of minus 33 was worse than his forecast of minus 27. "It seems that the negative impact from the terrorist attacks in the US was pretty much reflected in the September survey," Mizuno said. Mizuno also said that it is likely that the impact of the attacks has not been reflected to the same degree in the earnings and profit estimates in the survey. "I don't think Japanese firms can change their earnings and profit plans so quickly. It is possible that Japanese firms did not include the impact (of the attacks) in this section (of the survey)." Mizuno said that against this background, even if the government were to introduce a large-scale supplementary budget, it would not provide that much support while the accompanying increase in government bond issue could increase the risk in the bond markets.

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