24 September 2001, 09:21  OUTLOOK Euro zone data seen mixed; M3 higher, industrial output falling

LONDON (AFX) - Euro zone economic indicators due for release this week will likely be mixed, with M3 data forecasts to remain well above the European Central Bank's 4.5 pct reference value but with a fall expected in the area's industrial output.
Credit Suisse First Boston said the ECB is likely to downplay the strength of the M3 numbers, citing 'special factors', while it chooses to remain in a monetary easing mode.
Meanwhile, industrial output in the euro zone is seen falling in August as the slowdown in foreign demand is exacerbated by a decline in domestic orders.
ABN Amro noted in a research note that the German newspaper Handelsblatt's indicator suggests slower activity in Germany -- a factor which is likely to have caused overall EMU industrial production to shrink.
Elsewhere, French household consumption figures are also likely to have dipped, dented by rising unemployment.
Economists' forecasts for euro zone indicators due Sept 24-28 (percentage changes unless stated otherwise)
All times quoted are CET

AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
MONDAY SEPT 24
Euro zone July industrial output (noon)
month-on-month -0.8 +0.6
year-on-year +0.3 +1.4

TUESDAY SEPT 25
France Aug household consumption (8.50 am)
month-on-month +0.2 +1.5
year-on-year +2.0 +2.7

France Aug final CPI (8.45 am)
month-on-month 0.0 -0.2
year-on-year +1.9 +2.2

WEDNESDAY SEPT 26
German August PPI
month-on-month 0.0 -0.5
year-on-year +2.8 +3.1

Italy July retail sales (9.00 am)
year-on-year +2.7 +2.9

THURSDAY SEPT 27
France Sept business confidence (8.50 am) -38 -36
Italy July industrial orders (9.00 am) -5.9 -5.5
Italy July industrial output (9.00 am) +1.2 +3.2

Euro zone Aug M3 (10.00 am)
year-on-year +6.4 +6.4
year-on-year 3-month mvg avg +6.3 +5.9

Belgium Sept CPI
month-on-month +0.2 0.0
year-on-year +2.1 +2.7

FRIDAY SEPT 28
France Aug unemployment rate (pct)(8.45 am) 9.0 8.9

France July producer prices (8.50 am)
month-on-month -0.4 -0.1
year-on-year +1.6 +2.3

France Aug producer prices (8.50 am)
month-on-month +0.1 n/a
year-on-year +1.2 n/a

Italy Sept preliminary CPI (9.00 am)
month-on-month +0.1 0.0
year-on-year +2.7 +2.8

Dutch Aug producer prices (9.30 am)
month-on-month -0.2 -1.7
year-on-year 1.2 +1.5

Spain Aug producer prices
month-on-month 0.0 -0.2
year-on-year 1.8 +2.0

ALSO EXPECTED
German preliminary Sept CPI
month-on-month -0.1 -0.2
year-on-year +2.0 +2.6

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