20 September 2001, 09:10 BoJ downgrades economic assessment; economic adjustment becomes more severe
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The Bank of Japan downgraded its economic
assessment, saying in its September report that adjustments in economic
activity have become more severe, with a deterioration in the corporate
sector beginning to have a spill-over impact on the household sector.
This is the fourth consecutive month that the central bank has
downgraded its assessment of the economy.
The central bank also pointed to the gloomier outlook, citing the
possible fallout of the terrorist attacks on the already fragile
economic activity in Japan.
"Adjustments in economic activity are becoming more severe as the
substantial decline in production, starting from a fall in exports, is
beginning to have a negative influence on employment and income
conditions," the BoJ said in its report.
In its August report, the central bank had said that "adjustments
in economic activity are intensifying further, reflecting a substantial
decline in exports and production."
Based on the new analysis, the Bank of Japan Monday decided to ease
monetary policy, boosting the target for outstanding current account
balances to beyond 6.00 trln yen and cutting the official discount rate
to 0.10 pct.
The central bank emphasized a broadening deterioration of economic
activity in the latest report.
"Business fixed investment is decreasing notably," the bank said,
downgrading from the assessment in the August report that capital
spending was decreasing.
The BoJ also noted that net exports are now falling due "not only
to a slowdown in overseas economies but also to sluggish demand for
IT-related goods.
"Reflecting such developments in final demand and the strong excess
of inventories of electronics parts and materials, industrial
production continues to decline considerably," it said.
As a result, corporate profits and business sentiment "are also
worsening particularly in the manufacturing sector.
"Affected by these developments, household income is weakening
gradually," the bank added.
The central bank said that although consumer spending remained
"flat on the whole," it is expected to "become weak gradually, while
employment and income conditions continue to deteriorate."
The central bank also warned of sustained sluggish economic
activity ahead, citing a downside risk in net exports and industrial
output, as well as in corporate profits and capital spending.
"Overall, adjustments, starting from the decrease in exports, are
expected to have a negative influence on domestic demand gradually and
this in turn will possibly prolong the ongoing adjustments," the bank
said.
"Moreover, while the economy continues to be in a fragile state,
attention should be paid to the growing risk of a negative impact on
the economy induced by developments in foreign and domestic capital
markets via corporate and household confidence."
The BoJ also noted that business fixed asset investment and
industrial production are projected to "follow a downtrend" as
inventory adjustments in the IT sector and the base material sector
will "continue for the time being."
The central bank said deflationary pressure remains intact, adding
that "overall, prices are expected to follow a gradual declining trend
for the time being.
"Moreover, given the high degree of uncertainty regarding future
economic developments, the possibility that weak demand will intensify
downward pressure on prices warrants careful monitoring."
The bank also noted receding expectations that the US economy will
emerge as a growth engine in the near term.
"Uncertainty regarding the outlook for the recovery of overseas
economies, particulary the US, is growing further, while the global
economy continues to decelerate concurrently."
The bank said that therefore, "it is necessary to carefully monitor
the effects of the terrorist attacks in the US on global financial
markets and economic activity."
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