14 September 2001, 12:37 Forex - Dollar lower in early London after yesterday's weak US data
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar was lower against major currencies in
early trade after yesterday's weak US economic figures reinforced the
view that the world's biggest economy, now hit by the impact of
Tuesday's devastating attacks, is in deep trouble, dealers said.
Dealers said the dollar will come under further pressure if
yesterday's negative unemployment and consumer confidence figures, both
compiled before the terrorist attacks, are followed by further weak
data from the US today.
They said the real test for the currency market will not come until
Monday when trade in US equities will resume and when the unofficial
gentleman's agreement not to speculate can be expected to end.
"Activity will slowly return to the foreign exchange market ahead
of today's key US numbers, and also people are now looking to Monday
when the equity market resumes," Halifax economist Steven Pearson said.
"The short-term outcome of this will be further pressure on the
dollar today. Yesterday's poor consumer confidence figures raise
concerns about the US economy going forward," he said.
"Obviously, the tragedy in New York doesn't help, and also jobless
claims are up quite sharply as well. If we get some weaker data this
afternoon, which is possible, then the dollar will come under further
pressure," he said.
WestLB's Michael Klawitter agreed the confidence figures highlight
the downside risks in growth.
"We keep the view that foreign portfolio investment into the US
will decline as risk aversion is running high which will in the end
weaken the dollar," he said.
He added however, "In this environment, the fact that the market is
now expecting the US Federal Reserve to cut rates aggressively by
another 75 basis points by the end of December should only dampen the
dollar's decline."
Pearson, from Halifax, said the Fed will probably wait for a while
after the resumption of trade in US equities before cutting rates,
unless the market falls sharply, which he does not expect it to do.
He said the gentleman's agreement amongst financial institutions
will probably hold until Monday only.
"I think volatility around key economic data releases is
unavoidable really," he said.
Dealers said the Swiss franc is replacing the dollar as a
safe-haven currency.
In the UK, dealers noted that sterling showed little reaction
either to the appointment of euro-sceptic Iain Duncan Smith as
Conservative Party leader or to Bank of England governor Eddie George's
comment that the UK government's political instinct is "very strongly
in favour" of euro entry.
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