10 September 2001, 09:22 OUTLOOK - Japan economic indicators for wk to Sept 14
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given
by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this
week (along with the comparative figure for the previous month or
earlier estimate; and the consensus forecast for the month):
JAPAN AUG WPI, Monday (8.50 am):
-- down 0.8-1.0 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.8 in July; consensus down 0.9)
-- flat-down 0.2 pct mth-on-mth (up 0.1 in July; consensus down
0.1)
HSBC wrote: "In August, the domestic WPI is expected to have moved
sideways month-on-month and to have fallen 0.8 pct year-on-year, down
for eleven consecutive months. Due to the sharp economic slowdown,
deflationary pressure is strengthening."
Societe Generale wrote: "We expect domestic wholesale prices to
continue to drop by 0.9 pct year-on-year in August, a confirmation of
persistent deflationary pressure. In addition to the downtrend in
machinery prices caused by technological innovations, price declines in
goods and services due to deregu lation and the streamlining of
distribution channels are restraining developments. Downward pressure
stemming from weak demand is also weighing on prices."
JAPAN AUG M2+CDS, Monday (8.50 am):
-- up 3.1-3.6 pct yr-on-yr (up 3.3 in July; consensus up 3.4)
HSBC wrote: "Given that a shift of funds from postal-savings
deposits to cash or bank deposits peaked out in July, M2+CDs growth is
likely to remain unchanged at 3.3 pct year-on-year in August."
JAPAN AUG MACHINERY ORDERS, Monday (2.00 pm):
-- up 3.8-down 7.5 pct mth-on-mth (down 6.6 in July; consensus down
0.8)
-- down 0.1-10.5 pct yr-on-yr (down 9.5 in July; consensus down
4.3)
Societe Generale wrote: "The stagnation is due largely to the
reaction to robust IT investment seen last year. Meanwhile, the
achievement ratio (results/forecasts), which tends to move ahead of
machinery orders, seems to have bottomed out lately. The bottom of
capex may be sooner rather than later."
HSBC wrote: "Private machinery orders are likely to see a
month-on-month decline of 5.0 pct in July. This would mean three
consecutive months of fall, for the first time in almost ten years. On
a year-on-year basis, orders should decline 8.1 pct, falling for the
first time since November 1999. This should confirm that private
machinery orders have entered a declining trend."
JAPAN JULY CURRENT ACCOUNT, Thursday (8.50 am):
-- 478.4-700 bln yen (1.08 trln in June; consensus 581.6 bln)
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