31 August 2001, 18:30 Greenspan says stock profits lead to more spending than home sales
JACKSON HOLE, WY (AFX) - Federal Reserve research has found that
profits generated from stock ownership is a "more potent factor" in
determining consumer spending than gains realized from home sales,
according to Federal Reserve board chairman Alan Greenspan.
And he said federal government statistics have not done a good job
of capturing the impact that the "dramatic capital gains and losses in
equity markets in recent years" have had on consumer behavior.
"Household capital gains on directly held equities and mutual funds
in recent years have been two to four times the size of the overall
gains on homes. The sheer size of such gains suggests that capital
gains on equities have been a more potent force in determining spending
on gains on homes," Greenspan said in an opening address to a symposium
sponsored by the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank.
Economists believe that for every dollar in wealth added to a
household, consumer spending is increased by about three to five cents.
But the Fed is working on new statistics to help infer how
consumers respond when the wealth is generated by different assets, for
example stocks or home ownership.
Surveys suggest that for every dollar of wealth generated from the
sale of homes is approximately 10 to 15 cents on the dollar, Greenspan
said.
Consumers do not spend that much for each dollar of stock market
gains, but the spending "is still larger in overall dollar magnitude,"
he said.
Greenspan said the government needs "more information than we
currently possess about the nature and sources of capital gains and the
interaction of these gains with credit markets and consumer behavior."
He suggested the government should develop "separate sets of
accounts to track capital gains."
"As we endeavor to better understand how changes in the level and
composition of wealth affect economic behavior, new accounting systems
may be required to supplement those that have long served us so well,"
he said.
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