29 August 2001, 12:14 Forex - Euro firmer vs dollar in early London on poor US data, rate cut hopes
LONDON (AFX) - The euro firmed against the dollar on the back of
yesterday's unexpectedly weak US consumer confidence figures and on
hopes of a European Central Bank rate cut, dealers said.
"Those are the main things that the market is focusing on, and they
are what's driving the euro higher this morning," Halifax economist
Nick Mirtchev said.
Dealers said they do not expect yesterday's surge in euro zone M3
money supply growth to prevent the ECB's governing council from cutting
rates at its meeting tomorrow.
"It's taken the market a while to assess the implication of the
figures, but the way that the M3 data was presented implies, even if it
was stronger than expected, that the likelihood of an ECB rate cut
tomorrow is not diminished," Mirtchev said.
WestLB's Michael Klawitter said however that while the figures
should not preclude an ECB rate cut, he expects the central bank to
wait until Sept 13 before moving.
He predicted the euro's gains against the dollar will be limited
ahead of the ECB decision.
"Apart from the large euro long position held by speculative
accounts, the high level of market optimism for a rate cut this week
leave the euro vulnerable to any disappointment by the ECB," he said.
Dealers said market participants will take their next cue from this
afternoon's GDP figures from the US.
Klawitter said the downturn in US equities underlined the market
disappointment at yesterday's consumer confidence figures, but "given
the large dollar short position in the market it will need a
substantially worse than expected US Q2 GDP number today to keep the
downward momentum alive in the short-term".
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