29 August 2001, 12:14  Forex - Euro firmer vs dollar in early London on poor US data, rate cut hopes

LONDON (AFX) - The euro firmed against the dollar on the back of yesterday's unexpectedly weak US consumer confidence figures and on hopes of a European Central Bank rate cut, dealers said. "Those are the main things that the market is focusing on, and they are what's driving the euro higher this morning," Halifax economist Nick Mirtchev said. Dealers said they do not expect yesterday's surge in euro zone M3 money supply growth to prevent the ECB's governing council from cutting rates at its meeting tomorrow. "It's taken the market a while to assess the implication of the figures, but the way that the M3 data was presented implies, even if it was stronger than expected, that the likelihood of an ECB rate cut tomorrow is not diminished," Mirtchev said. WestLB's Michael Klawitter said however that while the figures should not preclude an ECB rate cut, he expects the central bank to wait until Sept 13 before moving. He predicted the euro's gains against the dollar will be limited ahead of the ECB decision. "Apart from the large euro long position held by speculative accounts, the high level of market optimism for a rate cut this week leave the euro vulnerable to any disappointment by the ECB," he said. Dealers said market participants will take their next cue from this afternoon's GDP figures from the US. Klawitter said the downturn in US equities underlined the market disappointment at yesterday's consumer confidence figures, but "given the large dollar short position in the market it will need a substantially worse than expected US Q2 GDP number today to keep the downward momentum alive in the short-term".

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