28 August 2001, 19:14 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar rises on European data; yen slips
Jim Cote //
Chicago, Aug. 28 (BridgeNews) - The dollar gained against all major
currencies in early trade. The yen fell after Japanese Finance Minister
Masajuro Shiokawa said that Japan wants a weak yen. The Nikkei hit a new
post-bubble low. The euro fell as money supply in the euro zone expanded 6.4%
in July, more than financial markets expected, the European Central Bank
announced. At 1000 ET, the Conference Board August consumer confidence report
(July: 116.5) will be released.
The Canadian dollar opened weaker Tuesday at C$1.5436 to the U.S. dollar as
desks squared positions before the Bank of Canada's scheduled policy
announcement at 0900 ET this morning. The European currencies declined against
the dollar, while the key levels for dollar/yen continue to border at 119.65
and 121.05.
USD/JPY came off its high of 120.49 and eased back to 120.20-25 on selling
from Japanese exporters, according to dealers. Offers at 120.50 discouraged
further upward momentum of the pair. There is talk that a good amount of
options with a strike price of 120.00 will expire at the NY cut Tuesday. Some
dealers expect USD/JPY to hover around the 120.00 level though the expiry,
because of expected delta hedge operation.
The Nikkei hit a new post-bubble low. Also providing some downward pressure
are declines in EUR/JPY.
USD/JPY had moved slightly higher after Japanese Finance Minister Shiokawa
said that Japan wants a weak yen. The comment caused some USD/JPY buying from
inter-bank dealers to push it back to above 120.00.
Japan's July adjusted jobless rate at 5.0%, hitting record high. ( story
.1584 )
The outlook is bullish.
Support: 119.70 (overnight low), 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
119.15/120.15), 119.05 (Aug. 15 low; 2-month low), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.30 (June
1 low; 3-month low), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 120.50 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
120.55/121.55), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.60
(100-day moving average), 123.02 (60-day moving average), 121.60 (20-day moving
average), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 125.50 (Gann
50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 126.15 (July 6 high; 3-month high),
126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high).
EUR/USD fell as money supply in the euro zone expanded 6.4% in July, more
than financial markets expected, the European Central Bank announced. However
the data reflect distortions also seen in June when annual expansion was 6.1%,
the ECB said. The three-month moving average at 5.9% was closer to the ECB
target for M3 at 4.5%.
Market analysts had expected M3 in July would be close to the 6.1% rate for
June.
"This (July) increase may partly reflect the current relatively flat yield
curve and the recent weakness in stock markets, which made the holdings of
short-term deposits and marketable instruments included in M3 more attractive,"
the ECB said.
The outlook is bearish.
Support: 0.9035 (overnight low), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level of the June-October downtrend), 0.9080 (Aug. 21 low), 0.8963 (50%
Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8932 (200-day
moving average), 0.9003 (20-day moving average).
Resistance: 0.9118 (overnight high), 0.9240 (Aug. 22 high; 5-month high),
0.9382 (March 2 peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 peak), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; six-month
peak).
EUR/JPY fell on the euro weakness.
The outlook is bearish.
Support: 108.65 (overnight low), 107.28 (100-day moving average), 107.31
(60-day moving average), 107.28 (100-day moving average), 105.80 (38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 104.54 (June
20 low).
Resistance: 109.58 (overnight high), 110.63 (Aug 20 high; 3 1/2-month
peak), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000
downtrend), 113.71 (April 4 high; 17-month high).
GBP/USD slid in line with the euro.
The outlook is bearish.
Support: 1.4381 (overnight low), 1.4345 (20-day moving average), 1.4384
(200-day moving average), 1.3911 (June 20 low), 1.3688 (June 12 low; 15
1/2-year low), 1.3660 (February 1986 trough).
Resistance: 1.4437 (overnight high), 1.4560 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of
January-June downtrend), 1.4584 (Aug. 22 high; 5-month high), 1.4756 (March 2
peak), 1.5100 (Jan. 8 peak, year high).
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