24 August 2001, 18:50  US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar up on pre-weekend short covering (2)

* The 200-day moving average provided once again support for USD/JPY, and stops at 119.90 accelerated its rebound. The pair remains guided by two Gann 50-point pivots at 119.65 and at 119.05. On the day, corporate resistance at 120.40 will likely put a lid on the upside.
Local fundamentals undermined the yen. Sales of Japan's nationwide department stores in July fell 1.5% from a year earlier at 839.3 billion yen, the Japan Department Stores Association announced. Department sales declined year-on-year in July, after having risen 2.4% on year in June. The intraday outlook is neutral.

Support: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.55 (overnight low), 119.05 (Aug. 15 low; 2-month low), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.30 (June 1 low; 3-month low), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 120.37 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.72 (100-day moving average), 123.03 (60-day moving average), 122.12 (20-day moving average), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50).

* EUR/USD slipped overnight largely within Thursday's range. Bulls are not quite sure if the pair had already peaked for the heavily overbought pair. Thus, look for EUR/USD to swerve around 0.9136, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend. On an encouraging note for the ECB, inflation declined in Germany and France. German producer prices sank to a 3.1% increase in July from 4.3% in June, largely due to sinking oil prices. July prices fell 0.5% from the preceding month. The data came in conjunction with a surprising drop in import prices, which recorded an annual 1.7% hike in July. German import prices declined to +1.7% in July from 3.6% in June, the lowest level since August 1999. The index registered a 1.5% decline from June. French consumer prices fell 0.2% in July after a 0.1% rise in June as the cost of fresh food, oil products and clothing and shoes eased, according to final unadjusted data released by national statistics agency INSEE. The July consumer price index was up 2.1% on an annual basis, still a touch above the key 2% mark identified by the ECB as a worrisome inflation level. The intraday outlook is slightly bullish due to short covering.

Support: 0.9096 (overnight low), 0.9080 (Aug. 21 low), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8928 (200-day moving average), 0.8971 (20-day moving average).
Resistance: 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.9167 (overnight high), 0.9240 (Aug. 22 high; 5-month high), 0.9382 (March 2 peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 peak), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; six-month peak).

* EUR/JPY fell to a 3-day low of 109.31 to penetrate the support of its rising 20-day moving average at 109.52. Next support comes at 108.61 from the Aug. 15 low. More importantly though was the penetration of a trendline support rising since June 1. Further losses would place more weight on the EUR/USD. The intraday outlook is slightly bearish.

Support: 109.31 (overnight low), 108.61 (Aug. 15 low), 107.34 (100-day moving average), 107.08 (60-day moving average), 106.77 (200-day moving average).
Resistance: 109.52 (20-day moving average), 109.75 (overnight high), 110.63 (Aug 20 high; 3 1/2-month peak), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 113.71 (April 4 high; 17-month high).

* GBP/USD is off a 1-week low of 1.4413 on intraday short-covering. The slide was accelerated by sell-stops at 1.4435. Buy-stops are expected at 1.4460. The intraday outlook is mixed.

Support: 1.4413 (overnight low), 1.4328 (20-day moving average), 1.4219 (100-day moving average), 1.4161 (60-day moving average), 1.3911 (June 20 low).
Resistance: 1.4480 (overnight high), 1.4560 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-June downtrend), 1.4584 (Aug. 22 high; 5-month high), 1.4756 (March 2 peak), 1.5100 (Jan. 8 peak, year high).

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