24 August 2001, 18:50 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar up on pre-weekend short covering (2)
* The 200-day moving average provided once again support for USD/JPY, and
stops at 119.90 accelerated its rebound. The pair remains guided by two
Gann 50-point pivots at 119.65 and at 119.05. On the day, corporate
resistance at 120.40 will likely put a lid on the upside.
Local fundamentals undermined the yen. Sales of Japan's nationwide
department stores in July fell 1.5% from a year earlier at 839.3 billion
yen, the Japan Department Stores Association announced. Department sales
declined year-on-year in July, after having risen 2.4% on year in June.
The intraday outlook is neutral.
Support: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.55
(overnight low), 119.05 (Aug. 15 low; 2-month low), 119.00 (38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend),
118.30 (June 1 low; 3-month low), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 120.37 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 120.55/121.55), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
122.00/123.00), 122.72 (100-day moving average), 123.03 (60-day moving
average), 122.12 (20-day moving average), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 123.50/124.50).
* EUR/USD slipped overnight largely within Thursday's range. Bulls are not
quite sure if the pair had already peaked for the heavily overbought pair.
Thus, look for EUR/USD to swerve around 0.9136, 61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-October downtrend.
On an encouraging note for the ECB, inflation declined in Germany and
France. German producer prices sank to a 3.1% increase in July from 4.3%
in June, largely due to sinking oil prices. July prices fell 0.5% from the
preceding month. The data came in conjunction with a surprising drop in
import prices, which recorded an annual 1.7% hike in July.
German import prices declined to +1.7% in July from 3.6% in June, the
lowest level since August 1999. The index registered a 1.5% decline from
June.
French consumer prices fell 0.2% in July after a 0.1% rise in June as
the cost of fresh food, oil products and clothing and shoes eased,
according to final unadjusted data released by national statistics agency
INSEE. The July consumer price index was up 2.1% on an annual basis, still
a touch above the key 2% mark identified by the ECB as a worrisome
inflation level.
The intraday outlook is slightly bullish due to short covering.
Support: 0.9096 (overnight low), 0.9080 (Aug. 21 low), 0.8963 (50%
Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8928
(200-day moving average), 0.8971 (20-day moving average).
Resistance: 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the
June-October downtrend), 0.9167 (overnight high), 0.9240 (Aug. 22 high;
5-month high), 0.9382 (March 2 peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 peak), 0.9595 (Jan. 5
high; six-month peak).
* EUR/JPY fell to a 3-day low of 109.31 to penetrate the support of its
rising 20-day moving average at 109.52. Next support comes at 108.61 from
the Aug. 15 low. More importantly though was the penetration of a
trendline support rising since June 1. Further losses would place more
weight on the EUR/USD.
The intraday outlook is slightly bearish.
Support: 109.31 (overnight low), 108.61 (Aug. 15 low), 107.34 (100-day
moving average), 107.08 (60-day moving average), 106.77 (200-day moving
average).
Resistance: 109.52 (20-day moving average), 109.75 (overnight high),
110.63 (Aug 20 high; 3 1/2-month peak), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement
level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 113.71 (April 4 high; 17-month
high).
* GBP/USD is off a 1-week low of 1.4413 on intraday short-covering. The
slide was accelerated by sell-stops at 1.4435. Buy-stops are expected at
1.4460.
The intraday outlook is mixed.
Support: 1.4413 (overnight low), 1.4328 (20-day moving average),
1.4219 (100-day moving average), 1.4161 (60-day moving average), 1.3911
(June 20 low).
Resistance: 1.4480 (overnight high), 1.4560 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement of January-June downtrend), 1.4584 (Aug. 22 high; 5-month
high), 1.4756 (March 2 peak), 1.5100 (Jan. 8 peak, year high).
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved