22 August 2001, 20:50 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro rallies vs dlr on strong Ifo reading (2)
* Helped by the support at 0.9136 from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level of the June-October downtrend, EUR/USD shot up after the release of
the better-than-expected Ifo survey. While premature, bulls are getting
more and more confident that EUR/USD will drill its way to parity by the
end of 2001. Significant buy-stops were triggered at 0.9203, the former five-month
high. The outlook is bullish within a rising medium-term channel.
Support: 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October
downtrend), 0.9135 (overnight low), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement
level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8922 (200-day moving average),
0.8939 (20-day moving average).
Resistance: 0.9240 (overnight high; 5-month high), 0.9382 (March 2
peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 peak), 0.9595 (Jan. 5 high; six-month peak).
* USD/JPY posted modest gains on the rebound from a 1-week low of 119.33
with a helping hand from the rising EUR/JPY. The pair will likely
consolidate around the 119.65 Gann 50-point pivot that targets 119.15 and
120.15 and the 200-day moving average at 119.53.
The intraday outlook is mixed, as USD/JPY remains in the range of past
Wednesday.
Support: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.53
(200-day moving average), 119.33 (overnight low), 119.05 (Aug. 15 low;
2-month low), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August
1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.30 (June 1 low; 3-month low), 118.25
(Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 120.10 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 120.55/121.55), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
122.00/123.00), 122.79 (100-day moving average), 122.99 (60-day moving
average), 122.45 (20-day moving average), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 123.50/124.50).
* EUR/JPY came close, but failed so far to take out the 3 1/2-month peak
of 110.63. The intraday outlook is mixed.
Support: 109.50 (overnight low), 109.42 (20-day moving average),
107.38 (100-day moving average), 106.80 (60-day moving average), 106.61
(200-day moving average).
Resistance: 110.56 (overnight high), 110.63 (Aug 20 high; 3 1/2-month
peak), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000
downtrend), 113.71 (April 4 high; 17-month high).
* Fueled by EUR/USD's gains, GBP/USD rose to a 5-month high of 1.4584
before profit-taking dragged back down to the more familiar surroundings
of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January-June downtrend at
1.4560. Traders shrugged off the U.K. data, which showed the Q2 GDP growth
unrevised at +0.3% on the quarter and +2.1% on the year.
The intraday outlook is mixed.
Support: 1.4520 (overnight low), 1.4313 (20-day moving average),
1.4218 (100-day moving average), 1.4154 (60-day moving average).
Resistance: 1.4560 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-June
downtrend), 1.4584 (overnight high; 5-month high), 1.4756 (March 2 peak),
1.5100 (Jan. 8 peak, year high).
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