22 August 2001, 12:36 UK provisional Q2 2001 GDP-OVERVIEW and SNAPSHOT reactions
--UK Q2 provisional GDP unrev +0.3% vs Q1; unrev +2.1% on yr
--UK Q2 total services rev up to +0.8% vs Q1; +3.5% on year
--UK Q2 household spending up 1.2% on Q1; up 3.7% on year
--UK Q2 production sector output down 1.1% vs Q1; down 1.7% on yr
--UK Q2 mfg sector output dn 2.0% vs Q1; dn 1.3% on yr
--UK Q2 domestic demand up 0.3% vs Q1; up 2.4% on year
--UK Q2 inventories 1 mln stlg vs Q1 1.414 bln stlg
--UK Q2 GDP market price deflator +0.5% on qtr, +2.0% on yr
--UK Q2 compensation of employees up 0.5% on qtr, up 5.6% on yr
--ONS: UK Q2 employee compensation qtrly rise lowest since Q1 '93
--ONS: UK Q2 services rev up on communications, retail, wholesale
London, August 22 (BridgeNews) - U.K. gross domestic product growth in
the second quarter was unrevised at up 0.3% on the previous quarter and up
2.1% on the year. There were few unexpected revelations in the provisional
estimate published Wednesday. The only notable feature was an upward
revision to services output, which was pushed up to a quarterly rate of
0.8% from 0.6% and an annual rate of 3.5% from 3.4%. The ONS said it
reflected stronger estimates for communications, retail and wholesale
output.
Revisions aside, the data clearly highlights the yawning split between
services and manufacturing sectors, with the manufacturing sector posting
its weakest quarterly performance since the first quarter of 1991. It fell
2.0% on the previous quarter and fell 1.3% on the same quarter a year
earlier.
Elsewhere, domestic demand slowed fairly abruptly to a quarterly rate
of 0.3% from a quarterly rate of 0.8% in the first quarter. It was the
same rate as in the fourth quarter of last year. Household spending,
however, remained robust, accelerating to a quarterly rate of 1.2% from
0.6% in the first quarter.
The change in inventories, estimated at only 1 million sterling in the
second quarter compared with 1.414 billion sterling in the first quarter,
reduced the quarterly growth rate by 0.7 percentage points, the ONS said.
The ONS said the decline in the stocks of raw materials in the
manufacturing sector had cut inventory levels but this was offset by
increases in construction, motor and retail sectors. The alignment
adjustment, which aims to square the different measures of GDP, reduced
the change in inventories over the quarter but not significantly, the ONS
said.
The trade deficit had no meaningful effect on GDP growth as it was
roughly the same size as in the previous quarter.
The figures will do little to alter the monetary policy debate. The
economy appears to be slowing but there remains uncertainty about the
resilience of the consumer sector. Economists are divided over the
prospects for another interest rate cut this year and say that much
depends on developments elsewhere in the world. End Copyright 2001 Bridge
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