21 August 2001, 08:30 Forex - Dollar firmer at noon in Tokyo ahead of FOMC
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was firmer ahead of the rate-setting
US Federal Open Market Committee meeting tonight, with speculators
cutting their long-euro and yen positions, dealers said.
"The market is waiting for the FOMC. Short-term players had been
selling the dollar/yen and are now making position adjustments," ABN
Amro foreign exchange manager Toshihiko Masaki said.
Most expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, though there
is some speculation of a larger easing and this may lead to
disappointment when the news breaks, he said.
"Some people will be disappointed by a 25 basis point cut but even
if the Fed cuts 50 points it may show the Fed is worried about the
economy," Masaki said.
Meanwhile, the euro's recent sharp gains, which helped drive the
dollar lower, have stalled, with the market needing time to digest the
build-up in speculative euro-long positions, he said.
"There is some real money buying euro but the short-term
speculators have been buying constantly, the same as what happened
earlier this year, and the IMM report shows the market's gone long on
the euro by a good amount," Masaki said.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's IMM data give details of net
currency positions.
"We have to see a correction before we go higher. Before the euro
recovers the 95 cents we will see a (technical) Fibonnaci retracement
to 88-89 cents," Masaki said.
"Tonight's FOMC may be a signal for the position adjustment but the
ECB meeting at the end of August may be a turning point for the next
euro rally," he added.
"The eurozone balance of payments is still negative but this is
decreasing from last year so the euro will not go down far," he said,
noting that the US needs a constant capital inflow to feed its large
current account deficit.
On the yen, investors are concerned that equity declines will
increase latent losses at listed companies, which have to report
interim results under mark-to-market rules for the first time this
year.
"There may be some corporate bankruptcies. There may be some
companies in trouble," Masaki said.
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