--UK Jun headline avg earnings up annual 4.8%
--UK adj Jul claimant count unemployment dn 12,800 from Jun
--UK Jun headline avg earnings above mkt forecasts
--UK Jun unadj earnings ex bonuses 5.3 pct pts, bonuses -0.5 pct pts
--UK Apr-Jun ILO unemployment 5.0% down vs Jan-Mar 5.1%
--UK Apr-Jun ILO unemployment down 14,000 on Jan-Mar
--UK Apr-Jun manufacturing unit labor costs up 1.9% on yr
--UK Jun single month avg earnings up provisional 4.9% on yr
--ONS: Signs UK employment growth rate levelling off
--UK May headline avg earnings rev to up 4.6% on yr vs up 4.5%
--UK Jun private sector headline avg earnings up 4.6% on yr
--UK Jun public sector headline avg earnings up 5.5% on yr
--UK Apr-Jun Labor Force Survey employment rate 74.8%
--UK Apr-Jun Labor Force Survey employment up 75,000 on qtr
London, August 15 (BridgeNews) - U.K. headline average earnings rose more quickly than expected in the three months to the end of June, mainly because of an unforeseen push from private sector bonus payments, according to figures published Wednesday by the Office for National Statistics. Headline earnings rose an annual 4.8%, compared with an upwardly revised 4.6% in May and forecasts for a rise of 4.6%. Meanwhile, unemployment also defied expectations, dropping 12,800 on the month in July instead of holding steady. Despite appearing to signal further tightening in the labor market, the ONS said there were now signs of employment growth leveling off. * * * Headline private sector earnings rose 4.6% on the year in June, compared with 4.4% in May. The ONS said there was upward pressure from bonuses in the financial intermediation sector, real estate, and hotels and restaurants.
Public sector headline earnings rose 5.5% on the year, compared with 5.3% in May. The government's extra public spending has been the main driver of public sector earnings growth in recent months.
The ILO measure of unemployment dropped 14,000 in the three months to the end of June compared with the preceding three month period but appears, tentatively, to have edged upwards in the latest month. The ONS cautions against making any judgements on the basis of single month contributions because the sample size is not wholly reliable but it would suggest the rate of decline may be tailing off.
Similarly, LFS employment rose 75,000 in the latest three month period but looked to have dropped in the latest month. That appears to have precipitated the ONS's comment that the "employment rate shows signs of leveling off." Taken together, these two pieces of information might well signal the anticipated "turning point" in the labor market that has helped underpin the Bank of England's decision that it can afford to lower interest rates. It will be a few months at least before there is more conclusive evidence that inflationary pressure from the labor market is abating but this might, in retrospect be the moment that reversal was set in motion. Certainly, there have been growing company announcements about job cuts in recent months, particularly in the manufacturing and high-tech sectors. The service sector, with the exception of some of the big investment banks, has been relatively unscathed so far but the economic downturn is expected to make itself felt throughout the economy in the months ahead.