15 August 2001, 09:28 BoJ downgrades economic assessment -- 2 (possible pickup towards yr-end)
The bank said a further weakening of corporate activity, including
production and investment, has increased uncertainty over the global
outlook.
"Business fixed investment is decreasing, while exporting
conditions continue to deteriorate," it said. In the July report, the
BoJ had said that business fixed investment had started to fall.
The BoJ noted that net exports are now falling due "not only to a
slowdown in overseas economies but also to sluggish demand for
IT-related goods."
"Reflecting such developments in final demand and the strong excess
of inventories of electronics parts and some materials, industrial
production continues to decline sharply," it said.
As a result, corporate profits and business sentiment "are also
worsening particularly in the manufacturing sector."
The BoJ also noted that the slowdown in corporate activity is
having a stronger negative impact on the household sector, resulting in
consumer spending remaining "flat on the whole."
The bank said that household incomes "seem to be weakening
gradually" as a result of the continued deterioration of the corporate
activity.
Looking ahead, the BoJ said that under a prolonged adjustment in
economic activity, particularly in production, "household incomes --
the basis of private consumption -- are likely to weaken gradually
along with a decline in corporate profits."
Until last month, the BoJ had asserted that income conditions of
households had not deteriorated.
The central bank also warned of sustained sluggish economic
activity ahead, citing a downside risk in net exports and industrial
output, as well as in corporate profits and capital spending.
"Overall, it seems inevitable that the adjustments, starting from
the decrease in exports, will continue for the time being," the bank
said.
"Moreover, the substantial decline in production could cause
domestic demand to decrease and in turn generate the risk of
adjustments in economic activity spreading even further."
The central bank said net exports are likely to maintain a falling
trend.
In addition, the BoJ noted that business fixed asset investment "is
projected to follow a downtrend" and that inventory adjustments in the
IT sector and the base material sector will "continue for the time
being."
The bank also said that due attention "should be paid to the risk
of a negative impact on the economy induced by developments in foreign
and domestic capital markets via corporate and household confidence."
The central bank said deflationary pressure remains intact, adding
that "overall, prices are expected to be weak for the time being."
"Moreover, given the high degree of uncertainty regarding future
economic developments, the possibility that weak demand will intensify
downward pressure on prices warrants careful monitoring."
The bank however said Japan may see some relief from an expected
pick-up in offshore economies, especially the US.
"There still exist such general views that around the end of this
year, ongoing inventory adjustments in IT-related goods worldwide are
likely to peak out and overseas economies, particulary the US, will
start to recover.
"Based on these preconditions, exports are expected to pick up
sometime in the future and thus underpin industrial production."
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