1 August 2001, 12:46 Forex - Euro up in early London after weak PMI rekindles ECB rate cut hopes
LONDON (AFX) - The euro was firm, but off earlier highs, in early
trade, benefiting from a soft dollar and after a batch of weak PMI
numbers rekindled hopes for a rate cut by the European Central Bank
tomorrow, dealers said.
They added that there were still many people who thought the US
administration will switch from its strong dollar policy but that equal
numbers disagree.
"The euro is trading within a narrow range," Chris Furness, senior
currency strategist at 4CAST, said.
The French manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index fell to
a seasonally adjusted 48.3 in July from 48.83 in June, Italy's fell to
a seasonally adjusted 46.40 in July from 48.30 in June, while Germany's
PMI fell to 46.3 in July, the lowest level since December 1998,
compared with 46.6 in June.
The euro zone manufacturing sector purchasing managers' index fell
to a seasonally adjusted 47.3 in July from 47.9 in June, according to
market sources.
Furness said: "The euro is holding well probably because the data
should increase the possibilities of a rate cut by the ECB this week."
Analysts added that large buying of euro/yen from continental banks
lifted the single currency to a three-month high at 110.08 in early
trade.
"There has been suggestions that the continued weigh of dollar/yen
selling yesterday kept the lid on the pair, which meant that those
still wanting to sell yen ended up doing it against the euro," Furness
said.
Sterling was firm against the dollar, breaking above 1.43 usd level
and drawing support from a much strong-than-expected growth in UK
retail sales volumes in July.
In its latest distributive trades survey, the Confederation of
British Industry reported that the net balance of retailers reporting
increased sales volumes in July rose to +22 from +17 in June.
It said the pick-up in the rate of growth is the fastest since May
2000.
The market widely believes that the Bank of England's monetary
policy committee will leave rates on hold at 5.25 pct on Thursday.
"Although the CBI called for a rate cut, the numbers on the survey
give even more reason for the non-movers to win in the BoE's MPC,"
Furness said.
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