5 July 2001, 17:30 Duisenberg says current rates will bring inflation below 2 pct in medium term
FRANKFURT (AFX) - European Central Bank president Wim Duisenberg
said the current levels of interest rates are appropriate to bring euro
zone inflation below the ECB's stability ceiling of 2 pct in the medium
term.
Speaking at the ECB's news conference Duisenberg said: "It (the
governing council) considers that the current monetary policy stance
remains appropriate and should bring inflation back in line with price
stability over the medium term."
He added maintaining price stability is the "best contribution" the
ECB can make to fostering economic growth in the long term. The bank
had earlier left its main refinancing rate unchanged at 4.50 pct.
Duisenberg said despite a strong rise in year-on-year M3 growth in
May to 5.4 pct, monetary developments remain broadly in line with the
ECB's reference value of 4.5 pct.
He said there is some evidence the M3 data, which are already
adjusted for non-resident holdings of money market shares, are
distorted upwards by non-resident holdings of money market paper and
short term debt securities.
"Taking this into account the three month moving average of M3 in
the period from March to May 2001 was broadly in line with the
reference value", he said.
On price developments, Duisenberg said there still remains a risk
of second-round effects from current high prices spilling over into
wage negotiations this year and in 2002.
Although wage developments in the past have been satisfactory there
is "ongoing concern" about the future, he said.
He said the current high rates of euro zone inflation are
determined mainly by shocks from energy and food price hikes, which
should only have a temporary effect on inflation rates.
"If no further unfavourable shocks occur it is likely that annual
rates of inflation will start to fall and reach rates of below 2 pct in
2002, although the decrease from current levels ... may be subject to
some volatility", he said.
Duisenberg said despite a likely moderation in growth in the second
quarter this year, domestic demand is expected to pick up later on due
to tax reforms and solid economic fundamentals.
"Average real GDP growth is therefore expected to remain broadly in
line with trend potential growth in 2001 and 2002", he said.
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