27 July 2001, 17:28 OUTLOOK 31 of 37 economists see ECB rates unchanged Aug 2
PARIS (AFX) - The European Central Bank will leave leading interest
rates unchanged at next Thursday's governing council meeting, according
to a poll of economists by AFX News and Agence France-Presse.
Of 37 economists polled, 31 said they expect the ECB to keep the
minimum bid rate on its main refinancing operations at 4.50 pct at
Thursday's meeting, the last before the ECB's summer break.
Four predicted a cut in the refi rate to 4.25 pct while one
forecast that the rate will be lowered to 4.00 pct. One said the rate
will be cut this summer, without specifying a date.
Most of those polled -- 25 of the 37 -- said they expect the ECB to
cut rates on Aug 30, when it reconvenes after its summer recess, or in
September.
One predicted a rate cut in October and one said rates would be cut
at some time in September or October.
The remaining four said they expect rates to be left unchanged for
the remainder of the year.
Economists said it is difficult to envisage the ECB cutting rates
before the summer break after ECB president Wim Duisenberg's July 5
comment that the council considered rates appropriate "for some time to
come".
The majority of those polled -- 27 of the 37 -- continue to see the
minimum bid rate at 4.00 or 4.25 pct at the end of 2001. Four forecast
an end-year rate of 3.75 pct, while one predicted a 3.50 pct end-year
level. One offered no end-year forecast.
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved