26 July 2001, 14:58 Germany's Ifo still sees 1.2 pct 2001 GDP growth, might hit bottom this summer
MUNICH (AFX) - The Ifo research institute said German GDP growth
might reach its lowest level this summer, but maintained its forecast
of 1.2 pct growth this year.
It said for the first time, however, that the forecast represented
a range of between 1 pct and 1.5 pct.
"We are currently forecasting 1.2 pct economic growth in Germany in
2001," it said in a statement released at its summer news conference
held in Dresden.
"This estimate must be interpreted in such a way that, from the
present point of view and given the margin of mistakes in official
statistics, we consider economic growth in Germany this year to be
between 1 and 1.5 pct," it said.
Ifo reiterated its 2.2 pct estimate for 2002 growth, saying also
for the first time this rate represented a range of "2 to 2.5 pct".
"The German economy might reach its lowest level in the summer of
2001" it said.
It noted that the Ifo business climate index for June has
"markedly" dropped to levels that were even lower than end-1998 and
early 1999 following the Asian crisis.
For the rest of the year, it said it continues to anticipate the
economy both in Germany and in the euro area will be stable.
It said the dent on exports would gradually diminish as the world
economy improves and euro weakness stimulates further exports to the
US.
In a table of key economic indicators for this year and 2002, Ifo
maintained nearly the same forecasts it had on June 26 when it revised
downward estimates on economic growth.
It raised its estimate for this year's euro area real GDP growth to
2 pct from 1.9 pct previously, and for 2002 to 2.5 pct from 2.4 pct.
It cut its forecast for euro zone CPI to 2.75 pct from 2.9 pct in
2001 and for 2002 to 1.75 pct from 2.0 pct.
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