26 July 2001, 14:58  Germany's Ifo still sees 1.2 pct 2001 GDP growth, might hit bottom this summer

MUNICH (AFX) - The Ifo research institute said German GDP growth might reach its lowest level this summer, but maintained its forecast of 1.2 pct growth this year. It said for the first time, however, that the forecast represented a range of between 1 pct and 1.5 pct. "We are currently forecasting 1.2 pct economic growth in Germany in 2001," it said in a statement released at its summer news conference held in Dresden. "This estimate must be interpreted in such a way that, from the present point of view and given the margin of mistakes in official statistics, we consider economic growth in Germany this year to be between 1 and 1.5 pct," it said. Ifo reiterated its 2.2 pct estimate for 2002 growth, saying also for the first time this rate represented a range of "2 to 2.5 pct". "The German economy might reach its lowest level in the summer of 2001" it said. It noted that the Ifo business climate index for June has "markedly" dropped to levels that were even lower than end-1998 and early 1999 following the Asian crisis. For the rest of the year, it said it continues to anticipate the economy both in Germany and in the euro area will be stable. It said the dent on exports would gradually diminish as the world economy improves and euro weakness stimulates further exports to the US. In a table of key economic indicators for this year and 2002, Ifo maintained nearly the same forecasts it had on June 26 when it revised downward estimates on economic growth. It raised its estimate for this year's euro area real GDP growth to 2 pct from 1.9 pct previously, and for 2002 to 2.5 pct from 2.4 pct. It cut its forecast for euro zone CPI to 2.75 pct from 2.9 pct in 2001 and for 2002 to 1.75 pct from 2.0 pct.

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