25 July 2001, 19:13 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar slips across the board on open (part 2)
USD/JPY fell to a 2-day low of 123.83 on general USD weakness and
pressure from the 20-day moving average at 124.54. The pair will continue
to use as a magnet level the 124.00 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets
123.50 and 124.50.
The intraday strength of Japan's currency does not match the weakness
of its economy. Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan Sakuya Fujiwara noted
that the local economy is "quite close to a" liquidity trap whereby the
ability of monetary policy to stimulate the economy is hampered. Fujiwara
also said Japan's central bank is providing ample liquidity to markets,
but the BOJ will keep an open mind on monetary policy measures.
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa has urged Ministry of
Finance bureaucrats to step up efforts to ensure that central government
spending is carried out properly.
The intraday outlook is slightly bearish, with support seen at 123.50.
Support: 123.85 (overnight low), 122.79 (60-day moving average),
122.70 (July 20 trough), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
122.00/123.00), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55).
Resistance: 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50),
124.48 (overnight high), 124.54 (20-day moving average), 125.50 (Gann
50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 126.15 (July 6 high; 3-month
high), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high).
EUR/USD climbed to a 2-month high of 0.8800, briefly piercing the
resistance at 0.8790 from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the
June-October downtrend. Buy-stops were triggered at 0.8760.
German producer prices were up a tepid 0.1% in June from May, but a
whopping +4.3% on the year, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden
said.
Annual producer price inflation continued to be influenced by energy
costs, which posted an 18.7% annual rise in June. Excluding energy prices,
producer prices in June were 2.2% higher than a year ago.
The intraday outlook is slightly bullish to mixed.
Support: 0.8716 (overnight low), 0.8571 (20-day moving average),
0.8350 (July 6 low; 7-month low).
Resistance), 0.8800 (overnight high), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8878 (200-day moving
average).
EUR/JPY twice probed the upside, but despite marking a 2-month high at
108.99, it's apparent that a heavy offer at 109.00 is capping. Barring
another wave of demand for the euro, the cross currency will likely settle
just a tad below the current highs.
The intraday outlook is mixed.
Support: 108.36 (overnight low), 107.61 (100-day moving average),
106.75 (20-day moving average), 105.84 (60-day moving average), 105.80
(38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend),
104.54 (June 20 low), 104.85 (200-day moving average).
Resistance: 108.99 (overnight high; 2-month high), 109.72 (May 16
high; top of consolidation area), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level
of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend).
Paying no attention to the deteriorating local economy, GBP/USD ploughed
its way to a five-day high of 1.4284.
The intraday outlook is mixed to slightly bullish, as traders are
looking for cues from EUR/GBP.
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