25 July 2001, 13:41  OUTLOOK Euro area adjusted June M3 up 5.0-6.0 pct yr-on-yr vs 5.4 in May

PARIS (AFX) - Euro zone adjusted M3 money supply growth will be between 5.0 and 6.0 pct year-on-year in June, compared with 5.4 pct in May, according to economists' forecasts. Most economists expect M3 growth to accelerate in June. Of 16 economists polled by AFX News, 13 forecast a June M3 growth figure of between 5.5 and 6.0 pct. One expected the figure to remain unchanged at 5.4 pct, while one predicted a decline to 5.2 pct and one a fall to 5.0 pct. The average year-on-year rise for the three month period from April to June is expected to come in at 5.1-5.4 pct, up from 4.9 pct in March to May. No date is set for the figures, but they are usually released around the 20th business day of the month and are therefore expected from tomorrow. The adjusted figures exclude non-residents' holdings of shares and units in money market funds, but include non-resident holdings of money market paper and short-term debt securities. The ECB aims to publish a new fully adjusted M3 series which also excludes these holdings by the end of the year. It estimates that the inclusion of these holdings currently inflates M3 growth by around 0.5 percentage points.

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