23 July 2001, 17:58 [FNX] Dollar/Yen Supported by Weak Tokyo Stock Market
July 23 (FNX News) - Continued weakness in Japanese stocks has been cited
as the main factor today behind the sharp upward move in dollar/yen.
The dollar is higher against most major currencies following weekend
comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill reiterating the strong-
dollar policy, said David Gilmore, partner with Foreign Exchange
Analytics. "He also said something new, which is that the dollar is not
too strong," added Gilmore.
The dollar has firmed more against the yen than the major European
currencies, however. The greenback is currently at 124.20 yen, compared to
Friday's North American close of 123.02.
"Japan had a weak report--something called the all-industries index--for
May. It's a proxy for GDP," said Gilmore. "It was down 0.9%. And the
Nikkei is down to its lowest levels since March of 1985. It was down over
2.5% last night. It's not looking good for Japan. So this recent rally in
the yen is running out of steam."
"They are saying that the weaker yen is a reaction to the drop in the
Nikkei, which fell very heavily last night," said Margaret Kudarauskas,
senior analyst with CurrencyNetwork.com.
The Nikkei 225 stock average fell 298.76 points to close at a 16-year low
of 11,609.63.
Kudarauskas offered the view that further upside potential in the
dollar/yen may be limited due to repatriation of Japanese funds.
Presumably, Japanese investors would repatriate money from overseas in an
attempt to shore up their books at home.
"I'm not so sure that dollar/yen is going to continue to rally (on weak
Japanese stocks), although its hard to tell," she said.
Gilmore questioned whether significant repatriation has been going on,
however.
"Very little of it appeared this last February and March (ahead of the end
of the Japanese fiscal year), when normally we see a lot of it. The bottom
line is that Japan has already reduced its exposure overseas....The
Japanese are not investing abroad."
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