16 July 2001, 11:16  TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

ANDREW CHAVERIAT, TECHNICAL ANALYST, BNP PARIBAS
EURO/DOLLAR: "We did have an attempt in terms of the classic downchannel which we see in the euro/dollar goes back to March. We did get above it on Wednesday, but we didn't close above it and of course we retreated yesterday. As I look at is, I have the March downchannel in the euro/dollar spot rate coming in around 85.50-85.60 cents area and we're still comfortably below that on a close basis as we head into the London close."
"The top side seems limited. We've had three highs in the months of June and July in this 86.70, 86.60 and most recently 86.40 cents, so over the past month or so we've really stalled out in that region and made lower highs. Technically, there's still a lot of resistance just around this 86.40-86.70 band and if we stay below it we could see some interest to sell." "We still have some negative risk, I think momentum is still negative. We could see a move below 85 toward 84.45 cents (July 9 low). At this point we've failed to break out on the upside despite the recent rally."
DOLLAR/YEN: "There is a sense here that we did fail to break down, we had a real snap back day. Yesterday's low broke some minor support at 123.70 yen, but remember, since the lows at 123.30 low back on June 26, we've kind of stalled in that region." "And what's interesting is that today we had a big reversal back above 124.30-124.50 and looks to be that we're well and truly going to try and close in the upper regions of this. We could maybe make another attempt to get back toward this month's high at 126.10 area."
EURO/SWISS: "Obviously the euro is underperforming the Swiss franc. We look now to be in a vulnerable position. We did have a double bottom at around 1.5125-1.5130 francs from January and a spike down there in the month of June. We're getting a market that's opening and closing essentially unchanged, and sort of in the middle of its trading range, which on a candlestick chart indicates that the market is kind of uncertain as to what the next move is. So this could be a short-term bottom, we could move back higher."
"Then again the break below 1.5125-1.5130 is a weak signal. We have see if we can really close below here in the next week, but on the weekly chart this is a bit of a negative. It risks going back toward 1.5020, the lows in December, if we can stay below here in the next trading session or two."
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "If we look at dollar/Swiss, you can still argue that the uptrend from January is still in place. We could draw an uptrend line off the January lows and through the lows that we saw in early, early March that we still have managed to hold above that comes in around 1.7530 francs. We made a bit of a marginal new low on Wednesday with the move toward 1.7570, but not much lower than the previous lows just below 1.76 and it kind of had a double bottom there (in June). "But then again we snapped back and we weren't able to close anywhere near sub-1.76 and in fact we closed above 1.77 in New York. So the market still kind of rejecting on a close basis these moves below 1.76. So we still probably want to buy on the dips down here and look for some sideways consolidation before we move a little higher as we have been from January." "That's a good measure for the dollar and a bearish measure for the euro/dollar."

DAVID SOLIN, PARTNER, FOREIGN EXCHANGE ANALYTICS U.S.
DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR: "On July 2, we warned of a minimum few weeks of upward correcting and 400 tick bounce and suggested lightening shorts at C$1.5065/85. The currency pair has reached that key level (C$1.5070) and has since bounced to C$1.5345/55, a 38 percent retracement from the April high at C$1.5825. Still, it appears to need at least another few weeks of wide, rangey consolidating ahead and it's best to trade shorter term views until signs that medium term correction/consolidation is complete."
"The potential exists for eventual gains toward C$1.5435/50, with a ceiling of the three-month bear channel (currently at C$1.5480/95) and maybe above, but trade will be choppy." "Nearby support at previously broken four-month bearish trendline, currently at C$1.5275/90).

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