12 July 2001, 17:48  US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar recoups losses; looking for leads (part 2)

* USD/JPY marked time within Wednesday's ample range of 123.86-125.76 and around the rising 20-day moving average at 124.36.
A Moody's Investors service report that downward pressure remains on Japan's government debt rating failed to have a lasting impact on the market. Moody's said it retains its negative outlook on Japan's Aa2 local currency rating and said the country's Aa1 foreign currency rating outlook is stable.
Adding to the economic woes, the Japanese public believes economic conditions were worse in June than in May, according to a Cabinet Office survey. Results of the monthly survey, announced on Thursday, showed that the diffusion index monitoring current economic conditions in 11 areas of Japan stood fell to 32.7 in June from 34.6 in May.
The pair is looking to create a base at 124.00, the Gann 50-point pivot that targets 123.50 and 124.50, after already reaching its upside goal. The intraday outlook is mixed.

Support: 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 123.95 (overnight low), 123.86 (July 11 low), 122.53 (60-day moving average), 122.50 > (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55).
Resistance: 124.36 (20-day moving average), 124.52 (overnight high), 125.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 126.15 (July 6 high; 3-month high), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high).

* EUR/USD gave back all of its Wednesday's gains on its way to a two-day low of 0.8521. The pair is also pressing on the support of the 20-day moving average, and a close beneath it would spell further trouble to its fleeting gains on the weak.
The ECB said that the slowdown in euro-zone demand had been stronger than expected in the first months of 2001 and this would continue during the Q2.
Despite this, it said in its July monthly bulletin, "in the course of the year, domestic demand should gradually recover" due to sound economic fundamentals, ongoing tax reforms and favorable financing conditions. French consumer prices remained unchanged in June. The June consumer price index was up 2.1% on an annual basis, still a touch above the key 2% mark identified by the ECB as a worrisome inflation level. The outlook is slightly bearish.

Support: 0.8532 (20-day moving average), 0.8521 (overnight low), 0.8350 (July 6 low; 7-month low), 0.8245 (1.382% Fibonacci extension level the Jan. 6-May 4, 19 downtrend; target of fifth Elliott wave), 0.8228 (Oct. 26 low; lifetime low).
Resistance: 0.8597 (overnight high), 0.8642 (July 11 peak), 0.8673 (June 15 peak), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8875 (200-day moving average).

* EUR/JPY fell on long liquidation from Wednesday's 7 1/2-week high of 107.98 to a six-day low of 105.85, which pierced the combined support of the 60-day and 20-day moving averages at 106.13 and at 106.09, respectively. Key support emerges at 105.80 from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999- October 2000 downtrend. The outlook is mixed to slightly bearish.

Support: 106.09 (20-day moving average), 105.85 (overnight low), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 104.54 (June 20 low), 104.19 (200-day moving average).
Resistance: 106.13 (60-day moving average), 106.89 (overnight high), 107.73 (100-day moving average), 107.98 (July 11 peak), 109.72 (May 16 high; top of consolidation area), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend).

* GBP/USD fell to a three-day low of 1.4056 after breaking the support at 1.4091 from the 20-day moving average. Although its decline was caused by the fall in EUR/USD, cable was also undermined by the latest British Chambers of Commerce quarterly survey, which showed that the U.K. economy is beginning to feel the ill effects of the global slowdown and needs a booster in the form of another interest rate cut. The outlook is bearish.

Support: 1.4056 (overnight low), 1.3911 (June 20 low), 1.3688 (June 12 low; 15 1/2-year low), 1.3660 (February 1986 trough).
Resistance: 1.4091 (20-day moving average), 1.4093 (overnight high), 1.4168 (60-day moving average), 1.4187 (July 11 high), 1.4224 (June 27 peak), 1.4264 (100-day moving average).

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved