12 July 2001, 13:10 Forex - Dollar recovers in early morning trade on US stockmarket gains
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar recovered in early morning trade,
bolstered by small overnight gains on the US stockmarkets, dealers
said.
The DJIA closed up 63.70 points at 10,239.3, and the Nasdaq
composite rose 9.38 points to 1,972.17
CIBC economist Audrey Childe-Freeman said the dollar has regained
some of its original losses against the euro and sterling, on prospects
for a stronger opening on the US stock markets this afternoon, and
after a US treasury official reiterated that the US remains committed
to a strong dollar policy.
She said concerns about emerging markets such as Mexico and
Argentina have not disappeared yet, but focus "has slowly shifted away
from emerging markets to the stockmarkets.
"Yesterday after trading hours, there were very good earnings
results from Yahoo! We expect the US stockmarkets to open very strongly
this afternoon," she said.
The yen recovered against the dollar over the past three days, but
Childe-Freeman pointed out that this was due more to the weakening of
the dollar.
Childe-Freeman does not believe earlier comments from Japan's
finance minister Masajuro Shiokawa will have a significant impact on
the yen.
Shiokawa said the Financial Services Authority cannot take action
to force banks to write off bad loans by injecting public funds.
He also said that if the Japanese economy shows signs of
contraction, the finance ministry would consider taking stimulus
measures to prevent this.
She said Shiokawa's comment were not particularly supportive
towards the yen, as he was reiterating a potential downgrading of
Japan, but the yen managed to limit its downside.
However, she does believe there is a risk of downside for the yen
today.
The euro weakened, trading in the 0.852-0.853 range against the
dollar.
Childe-Freeman said the ECB monthly report due this morning can not
realistically "stick to its quite optimistic assessment of the
economy".
She believes growth may be revised to the downside, which may have
implications for the ECB's monetary policy, "although chances for a
rate cut (at the next meeting) are still very small."
For today, Childe-Freeman does not believe this afternoon's US
jobless data will have an impact, and that the market will concentrate
on the equity markets.
She expects the US June retail sales tomorrow to show a small
increase, "which should confirm there is still life in the US consumer
sector".
This would be helpful for the dollar, she added, but pointed out
"we still have to watch out for the stock markets, and to keep in the
back of our minds the emerging markets situation".
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