12 July 2001, 13:04  Forex - Dollar recovers in early morning trade on US stockmarket gains

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar recovered in early morning trade, bolstered by small overnight gains on the US stockmarkets, dealers said. The DJIA closed up 63.70 points at 10,239.3, and the Nasdaq composite rose 9.38 points to 1,972.17 CIBC economist Audrey Childe-Freeman said the dollar has regained some of its original losses against the euro and sterling, on prospects for a stronger opening on the US stock markets this afternoon, and after a US treasury official reiterated that the US remains committed to a strong dollar policy. She said concerns about emerging markets such as Mexico and Argentina have not disappeared yet, but focus "has slowly shifted away from emerging markets to the stockmarkets. "Yesterday after trading hours, there were very good earnings results from Yahoo! We expect the US stockmarkets to open very strongly this afternoon," she said. The yen recovered against the dollar over the past three days, but Childe-Freeman pointed out that this was due more to the weakening of the dollar. Childe-Freeman does not believe earlier comments from Japan's finance minister Masajuro Shiokawa will have a significant impact on the yen. Shiokawa said the Financial Services Authority cannot take action to force banks to write off bad loans by injecting public funds. He also said that if the Japanese economy shows signs of contraction, the finance ministry would consider taking stimulus measures to prevent this. She said Shiokawa's comment were not particularly supportive towards the yen, as he was reiterating a potential downgrading of Japan, but the yen managed to limit its downside. However, she does believe there is a risk of downside for the yen today. The euro weakened, trading in the 0.852-0.853 range against the dollar. Childe-Freeman said the ECB monthly report due this morning can not realistically "stick to its quite optimistic assessment of the economy". She believes growth may be revised to the downside, which may have implications for the ECB's monetary policy, "although chances for a rate cut (at the next meeting) are still very small." For today, Childe-Freeman does not believe this afternoon's US jobless data will have an impact, and that the market will concentrate on the equity markets. She expects the US June retail sales tomorrow to show a small increase, "which should confirm there is still life in the US consumer sector". This would be helpful for the dollar, she added, but pointed out "we still have to watch out for the stock markets, and to keep in the back of our minds the emerging markets situation".

© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved