11 July 2001, 17:36  US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar under pressure after peaking last week (part 2)

* USD/JPY initially rose sharply in Asia as investors rushed to buy the greenback as it fell below 125.00 amid continued bullish sentiment. Market talk of Japanese investor and importer buying of the dollar largely helped the upward momentum. But demand petered out at 125.76, and it was all downhill from there.
The break of the trendline support at 125.19 accelerated the slide to a one-week low of 124.33. After reaching 125.00, the downside target of the 125.50 Gann 50-point pivot, the pair rushed toward the rising 20-day moving average at 124.22. The level remained intact for now. Next support is seen at the 124.00 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 123.50 and 124.50. On the economic agenda, Japan's current account balance in May posted a 444.0 billion yen ($3.54 billion) surplus, sharply falling 45.9% on the year, the Ministry of Finance said. The current account surplus has declined every month since December. In other news, Japan's Cabinet Office did not change its basic assessment of the overall economy in its July report, saying, "the economy is deteriorating." The intraday outlook is slightly bearish.

Support: 124.33 (overnight low), 124.22 (20-day moving average), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.48 (60-day moving average), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55).
Resistance: 125.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 125.76 (overnight high), 126.15 (July 6 high; 3-month high), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high), 127.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 126.50/127.50).
* EUR/USD advanced to a two-week high of 0.8622 on ongoing short covering from Friday's seven-month low of 0.8350. Its firm rebound was signaled Tuesday by its closing above the 20-day moving average, now at 0.8536. Overnight, the rally was augmented by the break of the trendline resistance at 0.8575. Its rebound was not hampered by the weak German economic data, which showed September retail sales falling a real 2.3% on the year and were unchanged in nominal price terms. But Germany's trade surplus in May, helped by the weak EUR, rose above analysts' forecasts to reach a provisional 14.8 billion Deutsche marks, compared with an revised 10.6 billion-mark surplus in April. Meanwhile, German consumer prices were confirmed at up 0.2% in June from May, and up 3.1% on the year, according to final data released by the Federal Statistics Office. The outlook is slightly bullish.

Support: 0.8536 (20-day moving average), 0.8533 (overnight low), 0.8350 (July 6 low; 7-month low).
Resistance: 0.8622 (overnight high), 0.8673 (June 15 peak), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8875 (200-day moving average).

* EUR/JPY fell from a 7 1/2-week high of 106.87 under the weight of USD/JPY. The cross currency lacked the momentum needed to hold on to its gains above the 100-day moving average at 107.73. The outlook is mixed.

Support: 106.87 (overnight low; 7 1/2-week high), 106.18 (60-day moving average), 106.03 (20-day moving average), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 104.54 (June 20 low), 104.13 (200-day moving average).
Resistance: 107.73 (100-day moving average), 107.98 (overnight high), 109.72 (May 16 high; top of consolidation area), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend).
* GBP/USD opens firm after rising in Europe to a nine-day high of 1.4174 on the coattails of EUR/USD. The pair remains supported by the rising 20-day moving average at 1.4092 and resisted by the 60-day moving average at 1.4176. The outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.

Support: 1.4102 (overnight low), 1.4092 (20-day moving average), 1.3911 (June 20 low), 1.3688 (June 12 low; 15 1/2-year low), 1.3660 (February 1986 trough).
Resistance: 1.4174 (overnight high), 1.4176 (60-day moving average), 1.4224 (June 27 peak), 1.4268 (100-day moving average).

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