10 July 2001, 16:35  US FX Daily Outlook: Euro extends gains despite bleak forecasts (part 2 )

* USD/JPY's rebound from a 5-day low of 125.22 kept it away from the trendline at 124.90 and within a rising trend. Traders are looking for fresh leads, so for the time being, the pair will likely swerve further around the magnet 125.50 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 125.00 and 126.00.
Speaking alongside Fischer, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan's current policy would allow further easing, but FX levels should reflect economic fundamentals.
That is seen as a covert encouragement to sell the yen, since the Japanese economy remains very weak.
The intraday outlook is mixed.

Support: 125.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 125.22 (overnight low), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.45 (60-day moving average), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 124.11 (20-day moving average).
Resistance: 125.89 (overnight high), 126.15 (July 6 high; 3-month high), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high), 127.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 126.50/127.50).

* Ongoing short covering in the wake of Friday's 7-month low of 0.8350 lifted EUR/USD to a 12-day high of 0.8562. The bounce pushed the pair above the 20-day moving average, currently at 0.8533, for the first time since June 28, and a close above it would have bullish implications. The pair is also approaching the resistance line at 0.8585, above which traders expect buy-stops.
The intraday outlook is slightly bullish.

Support: 0.8533 (20-day moving average), 0.8491 (overnight low), 0.8350 (July 6 low; 7-month low), 0.8245 (1.382% Fibonacci extension level the Jan.6-May 4, 19 downtrend; target of fifth Elliott wave), 0.8228 (Oct. 26 low; lifetime low).
Resistance: 0.8562 (overnight high), 0.8673 (June 15 peak), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8876 (200-day moving average).

* EUR/JPY rose to a 13-day high of 107.50 in tandem with EUR/USD. Next resistance level is pegged at 107.72, compliments of the 100-day moving average and the June 27 peak.
The outlook is slightly bullish.

Support: 106.45 (overnight low), 106.19 (60-day moving average), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 105.89 (20-day moving average), 104.54 (June 20 low), 104.08 (200-day moving average), 99.85 (June 1 low; 5 1/2-month low), 97.22 (Dec. 12 trough).
Resistance: 107.50 (overnight high), 107.72 (100-day moving average; June 27 peak), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend).

* GBP/USD trimmed gains from a 1-week high of 1.4133, but remained above its rising 20-day moving average at 1.4079. The pair needs to break out of a consolidation area between 1.4075 and 1.4135 before new positions would be set.
The outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.

Support: 1.4082 (overnight low), 1.4079 (20-day moving average), 1.3911 (June 20 low), 1.3688 (June 12 low; 15 1/2-year low), 1.3660 (February 1986 trough).
Resistance: 1.4133 (overnight high), 1.4177 (60-day moving average), 1.4224 (June 27 peak), 1.4271 (100-day moving average). For additional levels see story .876.

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