10 July 2001, 16:35 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro extends gains despite bleak forecasts (part 2 )
* USD/JPY's rebound from a 5-day low of 125.22 kept it away from the
trendline at 124.90 and within a rising trend. Traders are looking for
fresh leads, so for the time being, the pair will likely swerve further
around the magnet 125.50 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 125.00 and
126.00.
Speaking alongside Fischer, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for
International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda said that the Bank of Japan's
current policy would allow further easing, but FX levels should reflect
economic fundamentals.
That is seen as a covert encouragement to sell the yen, since the Japanese
economy remains very weak.
The intraday outlook is mixed.
Support: 125.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 125.00/126.00), 125.22
(overnight low), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50),
122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.45 (60-day
moving average), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55),
124.11 (20-day moving average).
Resistance: 125.89 (overnight high), 126.15 (July 6 high; 3-month
high), 126.84 (April 2 high; 29-month high), 127.00 (Gann 50-point pivot;
targets: 126.50/127.50).
* Ongoing short covering in the wake of Friday's 7-month low of 0.8350
lifted EUR/USD to a 12-day high of 0.8562. The bounce pushed the pair
above the 20-day moving average, currently at 0.8533, for the first time
since June 28, and a close above it would have bullish implications. The
pair is also approaching the resistance line at 0.8585, above which
traders expect buy-stops.
The intraday outlook is slightly bullish.
Support: 0.8533 (20-day moving average), 0.8491 (overnight low),
0.8350 (July 6 low; 7-month low), 0.8245 (1.382% Fibonacci extension level
the Jan.6-May 4, 19 downtrend; target of fifth Elliott wave), 0.8228 (Oct. 26 low;
lifetime low).
Resistance: 0.8562 (overnight high), 0.8673 (June 15 peak), 0.8790
(38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848
(61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8876
(200-day moving average).
* EUR/JPY rose to a 13-day high of 107.50 in tandem with EUR/USD. Next
resistance level is pegged at 107.72, compliments of the 100-day moving
average and the June 27 peak.
The outlook is slightly bullish.
Support: 106.45 (overnight low), 106.19 (60-day moving average),
105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000
downtrend), 105.89 (20-day moving average), 104.54 (June 20 low), 104.08
(200-day moving average), 99.85 (June 1 low; 5 1/2-month low), 97.22 (Dec.
12 trough).
Resistance: 107.50 (overnight high), 107.72 (100-day moving average;
June 27 peak), 111.02 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October
2000 downtrend).
* GBP/USD trimmed gains from a 1-week high of 1.4133, but remained above
its rising 20-day moving average at 1.4079. The pair needs to break out of
a consolidation area between 1.4075 and 1.4135 before new positions would
be set.
The outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.
Support: 1.4082 (overnight low), 1.4079 (20-day moving average),
1.3911 (June 20 low), 1.3688 (June 12 low; 15 1/2-year low), 1.3660
(February 1986 trough).
Resistance: 1.4133 (overnight high), 1.4177 (60-day moving average),
1.4224 (June 27 peak), 1.4271 (100-day moving average).
For additional levels see story .876.
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