10 July 2001, 16:22 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro extends gains despite bleak forecasts
By Cornelius Luca
New York, July 10 (BridgeNews) - The euro added to its Monday gains to
reach a 12-day high of 85.62 cents to the dollar despite ongoing concerns
that the euro-zone economy will soften in the medium term. Presenting the
lowest economic growth forecast issued by a leading research institute so
far, Berlin-based think-tank DIW lowered its German economic growth
outlook to 1.0% for this year from 2.1%, and to 2.3% for next year. The
institute called upon the European Central Bank (ECB) to stimulate growth
with interest rate cuts.
Sterling/dollar slipped from a one-week high of 1.4133, dollar/Swiss
franc fell to a 12-day low of 1.7805, while dollar/Canada rose for the
third consecutive session to a high of 1.5233.
Dollar/yen rebounded from a five-day low of 125.22 in part due to
International Monetary Fund First Deputy Managing Director Stanley
Fischer's comments that a weaker yen and further monetary easing would
help Japan's economy. Fischer added that Japan should gradually back off
from fiscal stimulus in light of its huge public debt.
In other news, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Ian Macfarlane said
the threat of severe global slowdown was the major risk to the outlook for
interest rates. He said the domestic economy had gained renewed momentum,
but added the bank would not hesitate to ease interest rates again if the
global economy deteriorated beyond current expectations. Macfarlane said
the threat of a major global slowdown was lower now compared to conditions
as recently as March.
There are no domestic events scheduled for release Tuesday, so
direction will continue to be provided by short-term flows. The key levels
to watch are 0.8533 for euro/dollar and 125.50 for dollar/yen.
Current Previous Change Global Global
NY open NY close low high
USD/JPY 125.58 125.25 0.33 125.22 125.89
EUR/USD 0.8547 0.8506 0.0041 0.8491 0.8562
EUR/JPY 107.32 106.63 0.69 106.45 107.50
GBP/USD 1.4103 1.4092 0.0011 1.4082 1.4133
USD/CHF 1.7831 1.7928 -0.0097 1.7805 1.7950
USD/CAD 1.5230 1.5209 0.0021 1.5195 1.5236
AUD/USD 0.5115 0.5110 0.0005 0.5092 0.5132
NZD/USD 0.4078 0.4069 0.0009 0.4065 0.4087
SP.1 1206.60 6.40 1201.60 1206.60
ND.1 1725.00 25.00 1703.00 1726.00
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