5 June 2001, 17:09 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro trims losses after hitting 6-month low (part 2)
* EUR/USD recouped its losses after sinking to a new 6-month low of 0.8425
with help from a rumored Bank of France intervention, although the bounce
only measured about 25 pips. More realistically, short covering triggered
buy-stops at 0.8450.
The pair had been sold off overnight by a U.K. name in Tokyo before
rebounding on the back of a EUR/JPY buy-order.
Heavy sales by a Swiss name saw EUR/CHF fall to a 5-month low of
1.5128.
News from the euro zone was generally negative.
Euro-zone industrial producer prices rose 0.3 % in April from the
previous month for a 4.1 year-on-year rise, according to the EU's Eurostat
statistical office. A BridgeNews forecast had expected the figures up 0.4%
for the month and 4.1% for the year.
A sharper-than-forecast fall in consumer sentiment caused euro-zone
economic sentiment to drop to 101.7 in May, slightly less than the 101.8
expectation of the market. Consumer sentiment fell to -4, from -2 in Apr,
while industrial sentiment came in at -5, from -4.
German sentiment dropped sharply to 99.4 from 100.1, while French
sentiment tumbled to 104.7 from 105.3. Italian sentiment rose to 101.3
from 101.2.
The senior economic advisor to German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has
said GDP growth this year may be 1.9% but that this corresponded to the
official forecast of 'around 2%.' But advisor Bernd Pfaffenbach added in
an interview with the Boersen-Zeitung business newspaper that the data so
far had been better than many private sector analysts had expected.
The intraday EUR/USD outlook is mixed to slightly bearish, with
immediate support at 0.8440 and resistance at 0.8482. The near-term
outlook remains bearish.
Support: 0.8425 (overnight low;; 6-month low), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 low),
0.8349 (channel line declining since Jan. 2), 0.8245 (1.382% Fibonacci
extension level the Jan. 6-May 4, 19 downtrend; target of fifth Elliott
wave), 0.8228 (Oct. 26 low; lifetime low).
Resistance: 0.8482 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8658 (20-day moving
average), 0.8901 (200-day moving average).
* USD/JPY hit a 5-day high of 119.92 in part due to the bounce in EUR/JPY.
But the pair still has trouble climbing back above 120.00.
Japan's economic conditions are continuing to deteriorate, according
to Heizo Takenaka, minister of state for fiscal and economic policy.
Real spending by households with two or more members April fell 4.6%
on year, down 0.9% from the previous month after seasonal adjustment, but
Japan's index of leading indicators, which shows economic conditions two
to six months ahead, was 28.6 in April, compared with 20.0 in March, the
government said.
Resistance is seen at 120.39 from the 100-day moving average.
The outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.
Support: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 118.70
(overnight low), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August
1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.30 (June 1 trough; 3-month low), 118.25
(Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 119.92 (overnight high), 120.39 (100-day moving average),
121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 121.44 (20-day
moving average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00),
122.55 (60-day moving average).
* EUR/JPY rebounded from a 4-day low of 100.25. The bounce was fed by a
buy-order that brought the cross from 101.00 to 101.50.
The outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.
Support: 100.25 (overnight low), 99.85 (June 1 low; 5 1/2-month low),
97.22 (Dec. 12 trough).
Resistance: 101.50 (overnight high), 102.58 (200-day moving average),
105.16 (20-day moving average), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend).
* GBP/USD trimmed losses after slumping to a 6-month low of 1.4068.
Buy-stops at 1.4100 accelerated the rebound. Traders are looking to
trigger more stops at 1.4120. EUR/GBP gave up most of its gains, which it
had made within Monday's range.
The U.K. services sector has recovered in May as fears about the
impact of foot-and-mouth disease recede, according to the latest survey
from the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. The headline
activity index recovered to 52.0, up from 51.2 in April and above the key
50 break-even level.
But price pressures remained intense with the prices charged index falling
to 50.6 from 51.9 in April. The GBP/USD outlook is mixed to slightly bullish.
Support: 1.4068 (overnight low; 6-month low), 1.3966 (Nov. 24 trough).
Resistance: 1.4144 (overnight high), 1.4226 (20-day moving average),
1.4298 (60-day moving average), 1.4402 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of Nov.-Jan. uptrend), 1.4410 (100-day moving average), 1.4534 (50%
Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally).
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