5 June 2001, 15:42 Forex: Euro steady in midday London trade; sterling hits year low vs dollar
LONDON (AFX) - The euro was steady to a touch higher against most
leading currencies in midday trade but participants' sentiment towards
the single European currency remain downbeat, dealers said.
They added that bearish comments from a couple of the EU finance
ministers, namely Austria and Belgium, who seemed to be ruling out
central bank intervention, initially weighed on the currency.
Ian Stannard, strategist at BNP Paribas, said: "The European
Central Bank is obviously on an easing track, and even though they are
still very reluctant to be so, it would be strange for them to try to
strengthen the euro at this stage."
He added: "I wouldn't expect the euro's bounce to be sustainable.
The euro is still in quite a weak position... the 0.8330 usd will be my
next target on the downside."
Dealers said that current option targets around the 0.84 usd area
could be protecting the unit, but at the same time be a tempting target
later in the day.
Looking further afield, the European Central Bank governing council
is meeting on Thursday and, while the outcome for interest rates is
hardly predictable, players predict a no-change this time round and a
25 basis point by June 21.
Today's euro zone's economic releases only served to underline the
weak outlook within Europe, Stannard said.
The euro zone economic sentiment indicator fell for the fifth
consecutive month 0.4 points to 101.7 in May from 102.1 in April, while
industrial producer prices rose 0.3 pct in April from the previous
month, giving a 4.1 pct year-on-year rise.
Meanwhile strategists were of the opinion that dollar/yen was
starting to bottom out after bearish comments by Japanese officials
should underline the weak outlook in the Japanese economy.
"We are looking for a break above the 120.00 area to trigger a move
up to the 122.00 area by the end of this week," Stannard said.
Sterling slipped to new year low of 1.4070 against the dollar.
Dealers said the next support stands at 1.4059, while the 16 year
low lies at 1.3951.
"There have been big portfolio outflows from the UK, heading
towards the U.S. corporate bonds," Stannard said.
The UK Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply reported that
its service sector Business Activity index rose to a seasonally
adjusted 52.0 in May from an unrevised 51.2 the previous month.
Economists said that the weakness in the export and manufacturing
sectors driven by a slowing European economy and a strong sterling has
kept the door open to further rate cuts.
However, the majority believe that this week is unlikely to see a
pre-election rate cut by the Bank of England's Monetary Policy
Committee at Wednesday's meeting.
"It looks increasingly that the Labour party will win the General
Election and that has increased market expectations that Tony Blair
will use that momentum to go for an early EU referendum, or at least
start campaigning for an early referendum, which will be negative for
sterling," Stannard said.
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