By Cornelius Luca
* USD/JPY hit a 4-day high of 119.86 on short covering, oozing slightly above the resistance of the 119.65 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 119.15 and 120.15. The rebound was fed by profit taking in EUR/USD and EUR/JPY and by rumors circulating from Friday that Greenspan was in a favor of a weaker JPY.
While the market is wise not to ignore the intervention threat emanating from Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda, the Greenspan rumors are not relevant in the short term, as the Japanese officials are not about to accelerate their promised structural reforms. The outlook is mixed.

Support: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.85 (overnight low), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75), 116.85 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 116.35/117.35).
Resistance: 119.86 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 121.54 (20-day moving average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.55 (60-day moving average).

* EUR/USD climbed to a 4-day high of 0.8538 in a session thinned by a holiday in Continental Europe.
Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Haruhiko Kuroda said Monday current euro levels do not reflect economic fundamentals and the single European currency is weak against both the dollar and yen. The euro/yen dipped below the 100 level on Friday for the first time this year, but Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa said Friday morning that he regards current yen moves as "normal" and that the MOF will not intervene in markets unless moves become violent. The EUR sentiment remains poor and fresh moves lower this week cannot be discounted.
The outlook is mixed; only a move above 0.8600 would trigger short covering.

Support: 0.8461 (overnight low), 0.8431 (June 1 trough; 6-month low), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 low), 0.8356 (channel line declining since Jan. 2), 0.8245 (1.382% Fibonacci extension level the Jan. 6-May 4, 19 downtrend; target of fifth Elliott wave), 0.8228 (Oct. 26 low; lifetime low).
Resistance: 0.8538 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8681 (20-day moving average).

* One day after tanking to a 5 1/2-month low of 99.85, the EUR/JPY also rose to a 4-day high of 102.30. The cross currency is capped at 102.56 by the 200-day moving average. The outlook is mixed.

Support: 100.80 (overnight low), 99.85 (June 1 low; 5 1/2-month low), 97.22 (Dec. 12 trough).
Resistance: 102.30 (overnight high), 102.56 (200-day moving average), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 105.52 (20-day moving average), 108.50 (100-day moving average), 108.51 (60-day moving average).

* GBP/USD edged lower within the previous range due to short profit taking in EUR/GBP. The cross currency reached a 5-day high of 0.6017. Cable slipped from 1.4211 to 1.4178.
The main news from the U.K. this morning was that M0 money supply grew 6.8% in the year to May, down from 7.5% in the year to April. The BOE's George said GBP strength was an obstacle to joining EMU in the short term, but that there was room for the EUR to recover.
The GBP/USD outlook is slightly bearish.

Support: 1.4178 (overnight low), 1.4074 (May 24 low; 6-month low), 1.3966 (Nov. 24 trough).
Resistance: 1.4211 (overnight high), 1.4237 (20-day moving average), 1.4306 (60-day moving average), 1.4402 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Nov.-Jan. uptrend), 1.4417 (100-day moving average).