28 June 2001, 11:25  TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels

NEW YORK, June 27 - The following is a selection of comments on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.
DOLLAR/YEN: "There is a very clear rising channel on the dollar/yen daily chart. Channel resistance line is drawn through June 11, 15, 18-20 and 22 highs and is rising at a pace of 25 pips a day. It seems to me that June 21-22 high of 124.70 is the most immediate, though minor, resistance level, then the round figure of 125 may follow as next minor resistance. However, the channel resistance line is already at 125.50-60 and April 2 high of 126.82 looks like a significant target on the upside. "Channel support line is drawn through the June 1, 5 and 15 lows. This major support line is now at 122.95-123.00 and, of course, is rising at the same pace of 25 pips/day. Overbought daily stochastics suggest that we may expect some downward correction. But only the break of the major channel support line would mean retracement of the rise from the June 1 low to June 22 high. The Fibonacci levels of such retracement would be located at the following levels: 122.20-121.45-120.70.
EURO/DOLLAR: "Today the euro touched very important declining resistance line, drawn through March 9, April 23, 27 and May 4 highs. Today's high of $0.8660 was right on the line. If the chart is going to break this important resistance line, we may expect the next resistance at the very strong technical level of $0.8730-40. I look at $0.8730-40 as the major resistance for euro/dollar. Above it, I think, we can really expect $0.9 and vicinities. However, so far the chart is down, away from day highs. Today's high, together with the June 15 one of $0.8673, may become the double-top. And if the chart will break below June 20-22 lows of $0.8490-0.85, the "right leg" of this double top may lead us to June 11-12 lows around $0.8420."
DOLLAR/SWISS: "Today's low, as well as yesterday's one, was located right on the strong support level, marked by June 15 low of 1.7595, also by the first Fibonacci level of April 20-June 11 upwave at 1.7605. This area of 1.7590-1.7605 remains a very good support. Such support is also backed by April 18 high of 1.7582. The other two Fibonacci levels of the same rise are 1.7455 and 1.7305. The May 14 high of 1.7548 may also provide some support. Please note that the channel support line, drawn through Mar 9 and April 20 lows. This important support line is currently at 1.7470, rising at about 10 pips a day. I would also look at the declining support line connecting June 6 and 15 lows. This very potential support line is now at 1.7420. There is an important resistance line, parallel to this support. That line is drown through June 11 and 29 highs and its current level is 1.7845. The line is declining at 20 pips a day."
EURO/DOLLAR: "In order to maintain its up trend, euro/dollar needs to significantly close above its resistance line at $0.8635. Resistance is at $0.8690, with support at $0.8550.
DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Dollar/Swiss remains 'heavy' as it breaks lower. Support levels are at 1.7605 and 1.7515 with resistance at 1.7775.
STERLING/DOLLAR: "Sterling is hitting up-trend support lines in multiple charts. Cable resistance is at $1.4235 with supports at $1.4130 and $1.4090.
DOLLAR/YEN: "The upmove still slowing, support is at 123.25 with resistance at 124.65. Sterling formed a 'black cloud' formation last Friday and a move lower to 172.25 is likely after its run-up this month.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "Aussie is showing gains nearly across the board as Aussie/dollar looks to end its nearly two year downward channel on the weekly chart. Initial resistance is at $0.5230 before $0.5285."

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