27 June 2001, 13:42  TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels (part 2)

NEW YORK, June 26 - The following is a selection of comments on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.

TERENCE GABRIEL, SR. TECHNICAL ANALYST, BANK OF AMERICA:

EURO/DOLLAR: "Viewing the strength that we have seen up off of the lows in early to mid-June, near 84 cents, I think this is a counter-trend rally which is extending up in an a-b-c pattern. I expect we will stall out as we press the upside and ultimately break lower again. I'm viewing this rally as a bear market bounce. We face resistance at the June 15 high of 86.73 and the April 18 low of 86.94. As well as we have trend-line resistance from the March 9 high of 87.00. You have the 50 day moving average at 87.10. I expect the euro/dollar rally stalls out here just above where we are. I think you would have to get above 87.50 to suggest this rally was more substantial than what it looks like. It would then go to 89 but I don't expect that to develop. To 89.00 is a surprise fallback scenario. My expectation is that euro/dollar fades as it probes up to the 86.70/90 area. Watch support at 85.35, (because) if we break back under there that would be a bearish turn. It protects a return to the lows (or deeper lows) near 83.70 the Nov. 2000 trough, which is above the Oct. low.

DOLLAR/YEN: "Turned nicely to the upside. A decisive penetration on June 15 and I think that confirmed dollar/yen moved into a bull phase. I see the weakness over the last three days as a pause and correction within the context of a new advance. Look for support at 123.70 yen, and then 123.20. I expect we will find stability on weakness into that zone and then dollar/yen will turn back to the upside. I still think we will press to 125. Over the next two to four weeks I would say we should be battling the early April high of 126.82. Very strong support in a zone between the 121.75 to 121.25 area.

STERLING/DOLLAR: "A bit murkier. We had quite a "V" bottom reversal. Of course, back with the June 12 low we have moved up quite sharply. It looks as if this recovery has a bit further to go before it is likely to stall out. Looks as if there is potential still for a move up to $1.4250 but I would view strength in the $1.4250 to $1.4330 to be an area as a zone for selling. Right now we are flirting with the 50 day moving average of $1.4193, but it does look like a very minor bullish pennant forming over the last three days or so and I expect it will resolve with one more push up into that zone and correct back to the $1.4000 level at a minimum and then pressure the support at $1.3900 and ultimately threatens the lows (once again). "Longer term we still have a trend down. Not enough of a sign that we have completely stabilized.

DOLLAR/CANADIAN DOLLAR: "USD/CAD is still in an intact trend to the downside from the early April high. It does look as if we are going to dip down to test the June 14 low of C$1.5135. At C$1.5125 is the trend line drawn up from the Jan. 2000 lows. That is going to be where we test here short-term. I think that support will give way and once C$1.5100 gives way we are likely to spill down and break C$1.5000 and ultimately down to C$1.4925/1.4875 area. Initial short-term resistance at C$1.5200 and then at C$1.5260. The C$1.5300 area is the 200-day moving average. Unless we see dlr/cad forge above significant resistance in the C$1.5375/1.5425 area, then the trend down is intact."

JIM CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM:

EURO/DOLLAR: "Upward momentum is stalling a bit as the bull heads toward the 86.72 high. We may have to sit through a mild correction on back of the topping one week cycle before the bull takes off in high gear. If a pullback starts to unfold and it breaks the 85.77 reaction low, than look for a low at 85.53. It marks the .618 percent retracement of the gains from 84.92. As long as it holds, The bigger bull will remain safe.

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Violation of the CHF1.7583 wave 'i' support may have been minimal and short-lived, but it is further evidence of a wave 'iii' decline underway from 1.7939. The spike low at 1.7571 may generate a mild correction, but even if it is able to move above the 1.7708 reaction high, it should top around 1.7798. This level marks the 61.8 percent retracement of the decline from 1.7939 thus far. Thus, in sum, the next big move should be much lower.

STERLING/DOLLAR: "We still have to be very careful here about a steeper correction from $1.4192. Still only a break of the $1.4082/81 support zone would signal such a correction underway. Until then, I'll slightly favor the case for one more rally above $1.4192 before such a correction, but my confidence is very low. Thus, it may be better to just avoid this market.

DOLLAR/YEN: "My confidence in the patterns of this market is nearly zero, as the pullback from 124.70 pushed below the 123.34 Fibonacci support. Penetration there opens the door for a run at the 122.50 reaction low, but only a break there would begin to turn the short-term trend bearish. Even then, I'll continue to consider action from 124.70 as a correction. Avoid this market for now."

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