TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this week (compared with previous period data or previous estimate):

JAPAN MAY INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT, Wednesday (08:50 am):
-- up 1.0-down 2.3 pct mth-on-mth (down 2.0 in April; consensus down 0.4)
-- down 2.3-5.5 pct yr-on-yr (down 4.2 in April; consensus down 3.7)
Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "The continuation of falling external demand evident in May's export volume numbers suggests that May production is likely to continue to fall in the wake of April's debacle. We expect METI's forecast to be undershot once again. Shipments likely fell by a more rapid pace and inventories likely continued to pile up."
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote: "Looking at Japanese industrial production has all of the macabre fascination of staring at a car wreck. You know it's bad but you have to find out just how bad. In the case of Japan, the view is dreadful at the moment and there is worse to come. We are not likely to see any beginnings of a recovery in output until there are some signs that inventories are being reduced. We are not there yet. Indeed, the slowdown in the U.S. industrial sector continues and disappointing data out of the Asian economies are causing growth expectation to be further downgraded."
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Industrial production probably continued to fall short of METI's official forecast, which is up 0.3 pct month-on-month for May. While large-scale electricity consumption for industrial use rebounded slightly on the month, leaving an upside possibility, weak export volume (almost minus 3 pct month-on-month) points to a disappointing result. Actually, if production cutbacks can successfully hold down inventories, that would be better news. Keep an eye on inventories."

JAPAN MAY LARGE-STORE RETAIL SALES, Wednesday (08:50 am):
-- down 0.3-4.0 pct yr-on-yr (down 3.5 in April)
HSBC wrote: "Overall retail sales in May are likely to have fallen, by 0.5 pct year-on-year. While this should be attributable not only to fundamental reasons that incomes and employment have not improved recently, a reaction from March's 1.6 pct year-on-year surge should remain even in May. March's growth was due to buying in advance of the enforcement, from April 1, of the electric appliances recycling law, which will add to the costs of four categories of appliances the cost of recycling the appliances eventually."

JAPAN MAY UNEMPLOYMENT, Friday (8:00 am):
-- 4.7-5.0 pct (4.8 in April; consensus 4.9)
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote: "The unemployment rate has held just below 5 pct for the past couple of years but a rise through that level seems inevitable at some stage soon."

JAPAN MAY JOB-OFFERS-TO-SEEKERS RATIO, Friday (8:00 am):
-- 0.60-0.63 (0.62 in April; consensus 0.61)
Merrill Lynch wrote: "While declines in self-employed and family business workers have been cutting employment, the number of employees has still been holding up relatively well. A focus is on slowing growth of new job offers. A firm result here would be encouraging and important. Nominal cash earnings probably fell back to negative territory again."
HSBC wrote: "Unemployment rate is likely to worsen to 4.9 pct in May, from April's 4.8 pct. The rising trend of the unemployment rate should continue, as a reflection of the economic slowdown. The job offers-to-applicants ratio is also expected to deteriorate to 0.61 in May, from April's 0.62. The improvement seen in April should have been just temporary."

JAPAN MAY CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.1-0.5 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.4 in April; consensus down 0.3)

JAPAN MAY CORE CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.5-0.6 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.5 in April)

TOKYO JUNE CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.1-0.8 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.6 in May; consensus down 0.4)

TOKYO JUNE CORE CPI, Friday (8:00 am):
-- down 0.3-1.0 pct yr-on-yr (down 0.9 in May; consensus down 0.6) HSBC wrote: "The Tokyo area CPI is expected to decline 0.6 pct year-on-year in June, falling for 22 consecutive months. Due to the economic slowdown, deflationary pressure should be basically increasing, while fresh food prices, as a volatility factor, should underpin overall prices in June."
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote: "Ongoing deflation ... shows no signs of coming to an end, despite the BoJ's objective of restoring positive inflation."
Merrill Lynch wrote: "The core CPI was probably stable on the month for both the Tokyo and the nationwide readings. The Tokyo result is likely to show a sharp narrowing of year-on-year declines, caused by the impact of rent reductions last June coming off from the comparison. In general, the CPI may be in a phase of narrowing year-on-year declines, as the economic recovery in 1999-2000 probably has some lagged effects. However, downward pressure likely will begin to re-intensify later in the year."

JAPAN MAY SALARIED HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, Friday (08:00 am):
-- down 0.1-3.4 pct yr-on-yr (down 4.4 in April; consensus down 1.9)
Societe Generale wrote: "In addition to a weak consumption trend, the adverse impact of front-loaded purchase of home electric appliances, ahead of the introduction of recycling charges in April, may have continued to some extent into May. However, longer opening hours of some department stores, as well as large turn-outs in the Golden Week holidays, should limit the decline."
Merrill Lynch wrote: "Real worker consumption probably rebounded to more than offset the April drop. However, the auto-exaggerated level of spending last May will keep the year-on-year rate deeply negative. The forecast gain would still leave the April-May spending level at more than 1 pct below the first quarter average. Consumption remains sluggish after the slow first quarter."
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote: "One aspect of final demand that held up quite well in the first quarter was consumer spending, but that was in part due to a new recycling law that boosted the demand for consumer durables. Household expenditure dropped sharply in April and there is not expected to have been much of an improvement in May." HSBC wrote: "Real spending of salaried workers' households is expected to have declined 1.5 pct year-on-year in May, falling for the second month in a row. In addition to little improvement in the employment and income environment, the recent rise in bankruptcies and weakness in stock prices should have negative impact on consumer sentiment."

JAPAN MAY HOUSING STARTS, Friday (2:00 pm):
-- flat-down 9.2 pct yr-on-yr (down 7.2 in April; consensus down 4.4)
HSBC wrote: "Housing starts are likely to have declined by 4.5 pct year-on-year in May, falling for the fifth month in a row. Although the expanded income tax deduction for housing loans has been extended by two-and-a-half years, it is inevitable for its effect to fade out gradually. Private construction orders are expected to have declined 17.5 pct year-on-year in May, falling for nine consecutive months. Orders from the non-manufacturing sector should remain a large drag on overall private orders."