25 June 2001, 13:42  TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels (repeat)

NEW YORK, June 22 - The following is a selection of comments on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market.

ROBERT ZUKOWSKI, TECHNICAL ANALYST, 4CAST INC.
EURO/DOLLAR:
"It looks like it's trying to form a small base but nothing's confirmed yet. Euro/dollar is more neutral than anything else. The key short term resistance is at 85.85 cents. We're going to use that as a trigger -- if you break above there, it could send it to the recent high at 86.70. But that's probably all you're going to get right now. 87 is a key level, the big break-down point we made several weeks ago. We would certainly be more bullish if it took out 87, but it doesn't look possible now. "The market has slipped into a choppy range, and it's too early to say whether it's a bigger base developing or a bearish continuation pattern. Support is around 85 and then the two-week range extreme around 84.15. So right now euro is stuck in the middle of that range, which makes it tough to call from a technical perspective.
DOLLAR/YEN:
"The trend is mature and we're getting overbought, but there are no topping indications here. I wouldn't be surprised if it started to struggle, but I'll give it the benefit of the doubt that it could extend above 125 yen in the short term. I certainly wouldn't rule out a retest of recent highs from early April around 126.80. In the bigger scheme of things, the rise from 118 to here has been a phenomenal short-term run, and from here to 126.80 is nothing. But maybe you could see some consolidation before that. There's key support around 123.50. If you start to dip below that, it wouldn't get us that worried, but it would probably range between 125-122.50 as opposed to heading straight up."
J.P. CHOREK, TECHNICAL ANALYST, CHOREK.COM
EURO/DOLLAR:
"The one-week cycle has been in an upward position since Wednesday's $0.8492 low. Hourly momentum indicators have been rising from oversold territory from this low. Neither has been able to affect a notable rally, a negative warning. There's still a chance for a wave ii low in place at .8492, but we'd better see an immediate rise above the recent .8584 high and then .8603 (.618 of .8672-.8492). Otherwise I fear a break of .8492, which would spell big trouble for my broader bull (only a break of .8470 would force me to throw in the towel on it). DOLLAR/SWISS:
"The decline from CHF1.7939 still needs to knock out the 1.7719/11 pivotal support before we can become confident about the broader bearish outlook. I label the 1.7939 high as the top of wave ii, so the next big move should be down in wave iii. Only a move above 1.7939/72 would damage the bigger bear."
DAVID SOLIN, PARTNER, FOREIGN EXCHANGE ANALYTICS
DOLLAR/YEN:
"Dollar/yen has been forming a rising wedge (common in dollar/yen) over the last week. Though a final test of the ceiling (currently at 124.85/05) appears likely, these patterns are generally topping/termination patterns that resolve sharply to the downside. Additionally, dollar/yen has surged over six yen since June 1 and is clearly overbought with a risk of a minimum week of correcting and two yen retracement rising. If more shorter term/more aggressive, may want to sell approach of ceiling (be quick to stop on upside break and acceleration) for the base (currently at 123.80/90), with 122.75/85 and even 122.40/65 after."

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