19 June 2001, 11:59  TECHNICALS-Forex market views and key levels (part 2)

NEW YORK, June 18 - The following is a selection of comments on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market. TERENCE GABRIEL, SR TECHNICAL ANALYST, BANK OF AMERICA EURO/DOLLAR: "Last Thursday we broke and closed above the the 20-day moving average last for the first time since May 4, but it does still look like a rally in a bear market. "It looks as if we're now going to erode back down to make a test of that moving average which is now coming in at the 85.40/30 cents area. I suspect we'll drift back down there over the next several sessions and see if it will act as a support. We have significant resistance in the 86.94/87.50 zone, which includes the April 18 low and a number of reaction lows as well as a trend line drawn down from the March 9 high. So we probed up there on Friday and now we're drifting back down. If we're unable to hold support we'll likely come under renewed downside pressure to retest the November 2000 trough at 83.70. DOLLAR/YEN: "Dollar/yen looks fairly bullish going forward. On Friday we blasted above trendline resistance coming down from the April high. Momentum indicators are confirming the move higher. Dollar/yen could be resuming its advance, looking for 124 yen in the near term, and refocusing on the 126-127 area to retest the April highs. Support is at that broken trendline at 122.10-122. EURO/YEN: "There's been quite a nice recovery off the June 1 low. But we look as if we may need to consolidate that move, from 99.78 to today's high at 106.56. We have resistance at 106.70 the April 18 low, as well as the 50-day moving average coinciding at around 106.66. Initial support is at 104.46, then here's a strong zone around 103.20-102.80, with the 200-day moving average coming in down there. "We could see some lateral action. Clearly the yen is going to weaken against the dollar, but so is the euro. So it's just a question of which weakens more. They could keep pace with each other." JOSEPH KLETTNER, TECHNICAL ANALYST, COMMERZBANK EURO/DOLLAR: "The bullish action during the past three days leads us to expect further advances in the near future toward $0.8739/0.8630 which represents the upper 2 percent trading band at (last) Monday's opening and the 38.2 percent retracement of the decline from the January high of .9595. In the meantime, if any setbacks develop, we would suspect that the market holds support between .8542/06. Any setbacks below .8506 would lead us to believe that the penetration of resistance at .8534/40 was another false move to the upside. Breaking .8506 would leave the euro vulnerable to another decline below Tuesday's low of .8411. A decline to new lows would leave this market open for even further weakness toward .8228, last year's low. Slipping back below .8411 would reverse Wednesdays' bullish breakout above .8540 on the short-term three-day swing chart. DOLLAR/YEN: "The decline from the May 16 high of 124.05 was the beginning of wave-c, the third step in the a-b-c consolidation from 126.84, the April high. Wave-c decline from 124.05 appears to have unfold in a 5 wave pattern into the June 1 low of 118.30. Wave-c low of 118.30 came close enough to satisfying our target of 118.11, the level where wave-c decline from 124.05 equaled the distance traveled in wave-a (126.84-118.30). Since then, prices have rallied to 123.25. "Along the way initial resistance was penetrated at 119.84/120.20 and then more important resistance was penetrated at 120.80, the declining 45 degree trendline and recently 121.38, the last swing high on the short-term 3-day swing chart las given us plenty of evidence to support our bullish count and the likelihood that wave-c has bottomed. "Now that the resistance levels mentioned above have been achieved the focus shifts toward the 123.57/124.15 area which contains the 61.8 percent retracement of the decline from the April high of 126.84, the medium-term pivot at 124.05 and the upper 2 percent trading band. In the meantime, if any setbacks develop, we see initial support at 122.06/121.70. Any further weakness could see price slip back to 121.36/120.19, the 38.2 percent to 61.8 percent retracement of the advance from 118.30 weekly support."

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