--Phila Fed Livingston survey pegs US 2002 growth at 3.2%
--Phila Fed Livingston survey pegs US '01 second half growth 2.7%
--Phila. Fed Livingston survey pegs '01 US jobless rate 4.6%
--Phila. Fed Livingston survey pegs '02 US jobless rate 4.8%
--Phila. Fed Livingston survey pegs US '01 CPI at 3.3%
--Phila. Fed Livingston survey pegs US '02 CPI at 2.6%
--Phila. Fed survey pegs 10-yr avg US GDP growth at 3.2%
--Phila. Fed Livingston survey pegs 10-yr avg US CPI +2.6%
By Mariko de Couto New York, June 15 (BridgeNews) - The U.S. economy is likely to grow by only 1.9% this year but pick up to a growth pace of 3.2% in 2002, according to the semi-annual Livingston survey of 27 economists released Friday by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve. The growth rate in the second half of this year will be an annualized 2.7%, much higher than the 1.3% rate expected for the first half of 2001, the survey also showed.
On the employment front, the Livingston survey results showed that forecasters expect the unemployment rate to rise this year as well as in 2002. The survey pegs the average jobless rate for this year at 4.6% and 4.8% next year.
The jobless rate forecasts for this year and 2002 were higher than in the previous survey released six months ago. In the previous survey, forecasters expected the unemployment rate to average 4.3% in 2001 and 4.5% next year.
The inflation forecasts in the latest Livingston survey showed that consumer price inflation will be higher compared with the previous survey taken six months ago. In this survey, forecasters expect the consumer price index to average 3.3% in 2001, compared with 2.8% in the previous survey, then decline to a growth rate of 2.6% in 2002. In the previous survey, the forecast for average CPI growth for 2002 was 2.5%.
Turning to their long-term forecasts, the economists polled in the survey said that the U.S. economy will grow at an average rate of 3.2% annually over the next 10 years, compared with 3.4% forecast in the previous survey.
The survey also showed that consumer price inflation for the next 10 year will average 2.6%, unchanged from the forecast in the previous survey. Forecasters polled in the survey include economists from investment banks, universities, research firms and private-sector companies.