LONDON, June 15 - The British economy should see a strong upturn in the final quarter of this year, and economic growth will accelerate in 2002, according to an economic index projecting future activity.
The so-called "leading indicator" compiled by NTC Research and published on Friday, recorded its sixth successive monthly rise in May to reach 102.6, the highest level since December 1996. That number was above a downwardly revised 101.4 for April.
The NTC leading indicator extrapolates the likely state of the economy in six months' time from current data on nine variables including new car registrations, job vacancies, consumer confidence and share price performance.
Unfilled job centre vacancies and lower short-term interest rates pushed the indicator up for May, the report said.
The first positive contribution from consumer credit in nine months, new housing starts and share prices also helped drive the indicator forward, the report said. The government has forecast Britain economic growth rate to slow to around 2.5 percent this year, from 3.0 percent in 2000. Some economists have said the slowdown in global growth, combined with the impact of the foot-and-mouth farming crisis, will slow the UK's growth rate to around 2.0 percent this year.
NTC said its data pointed to a "clear upward turning point" for the British business cycle for the last quarter of this year, and said the rate of economic growth would accelerate further next year.
NTC also said its "coincident indicator", which monitors the current position of the British business cycle, fell to its lowest level recorded since January, 1992.
"The NTC coincident indicator...signalled a downward turning point in the business cycle during late 2000, with economic growth slowing further up to April, 2001," the report said.