9 May 2001, 18:03  US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar extends gains on weak German data

By Cornelius Luca
New York, May 9 (BridgeNews) - The dollar added to its Tuesday's gains versus the major European currencies due in part to a 3.7% decline of German industrial production in March. The euro fell to a 20-day low of 88.11 cents, while the dollar rose against the yen but remained within the previous day's range. The greenback is likely to retain its strength in the U.S. session.
* * * Dollar/Swiss franc advanced to a three-week high of 1.7465, sterling/dollar dipped to a three-week low of 1.4205, while dollar/Canada slipped to a two-day low of 1.5394.
The light event agenda includes a speech by U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill Wednesday evening.

Current Previous Change Global Global
NY open NY close low high

USD/JPY 121.77 121.23 0.54 121.21 121.97
EUR/USD 0.8831 0.8849 -0.0018 0.8811 0.8858
EUR/JPY 107.58 107.30 0.28 107.13 107.70
GBP/USD 1.4213 1.4258 -0.0045 1.4209 1.4285
USD/CHF 1.7440 1.7422 0.0018 1.7403 1.7465
USD/CAD 1.5401 1.5418 -0.0017 1.5394 1.5451
AUD/USD 0.5206 0.5160 0.0046 0.5151 0.5212
NZD/USD 0.4229 0.4188 0.0041 0.4184 0.4233
SP.1 1254.50 -9.00 1254.00 1265.60
ND.1 1900.50 -42.00 1900.50 1949.00

* USD/JPY rose to an intraday high of 121.96 just before the U.S. open but remained confined to Tuesday's range of 120.83-122.15. The pair found support three times at 121.45.
Overnight, Japanese Finance Minister Shiokawa said he didn't want to turn the government's planned 30 trillion JPY ceiling for new JGB issues into legislation.
Japan's index of leading indicators, which shows economic conditions 2 to 6 months ahead, fell to 25.0 in March from a revised 30.0 in February. The index of coincident indicators, which roughly shows current economic conditions rose to 14.3 in March from a revised 10.0 in February.
The intraday outlook is mixed to slightly bullish, with buy-stops expected above 122.15.

Support: 121.36 (60-day moving average), 121.21 (overnight low), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 120.53 (May 4 low), 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend).
Resistance: 121.97 (overnight high), 122.38 (20-day moving average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50), 124.35 (April 27 peak).

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