9 May 2001, 12:01 Europe FX Opening: Summary of overnight moves and what's ahead
London, May 9 (BridgeNews) - The following is a summary of overnight
moves since Europe's close, plus possible leaders for the session ahead:
KEY ISSUES:
* USD holds high ground in Asia
* US's O'Neill, Lindsey generally upbeat on US economy
* Japan's Koizumi and Takenaka reassert commitment to reform
* UK sees robust BRC survey, but soft CBI survey
* German March industrial production dominates data calendar
--The USD remained on generally firm ground overnight, although below
Tuesday's European highs.
--USD/JPY retreated to as low as 121.21 in late New York, only to push
back up to 121.84 in Asia as the Nikkei shed another 204-points. Both
Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi and Economy Minister Takenaka reasserted
their commitment to reform. But Takenaka also told the Financial Times
newspaper the government wanted a "decisive monetary easing to continue"
and that the JPY might weaken as a corollary of reform. U.S. Treasury
Secretary O'Neill told the FT he was "very hopeful" about the new Japanese
administration. But he said Japan shouldn't rely too much on export-led
growth. The FT's Martin Wolf warned Koizumi's structural reforms wouldn't
work on their own. Lending USD/JPY support, Japan's leading indicator for
March dipped to 25.0 from a revised 30.0 in February.
--USD/JPY's recovery in Asia helped EUR/JPY to hold above Tuesday's
20-day low of 107.11 within a 107.25-70 range.
--EUR/USD consolidated above Tuesday's 19-day low of 0.8824 within a
0.8831-58 range in Asia. O'Neill played down Friday's weaker-than-expected
U.S. jobs data, while White House aide Lindsey said the U.S. economy was
probably growing around 1%. Potentially worrying for the USD, S&P lowered
Argentina's sovereign credit rating to B/C from B+/B. But there was also
bad news for the EUR, with the FT reporting its barometer of the euro zone
economy now sees growth of 2.6% in the first quarter and 2.2% in the
second, down from 2.7% and 2.5% respectively last month. Against this, the
FT also reports German Chancellor Schroeder is closer to introducing
private pensions. German March industrial production figures are the data
highlight of the day, and are forecast to fall 0.9% on the month,
according to a BridgeNews poll.
--USD/CHF held below Tuesday's 20-day high of 1.7466 within a
1.7419-45 range in Asia. SNB President Roth speaks around 1000 GMT.
--Cable and EUR/GBP ranged 1.4253-85 and 0.6187-0.6211 respectively in
Asia. The BRC said the like-for-like value of U.K. retail sales rose a
robust 4.5% on the year to March, down from 4.8% in February. But the
CBI's regional trends survey reported more gloom in the U.K. manufacturing
sector. The BOE's U.K. rates 25-basis points.
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