4 May 2001, 15:26 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar lower ahead of US jobs data (part2)
By Cornelius Luca
* EUR/USD managed to hold on to its limited gains despite the fact that
business confidence in the euro zone took another plunge in April to an
index reading of 0.36 from a revised 0.58 in March and 0.97 in February.
The EU Commission said the
The news is not as bad as it seems, at least according to. It said
"this fourth decrease of the year was consistent with industrial
production progressively slowing down to its average between 1986 and
2000." But the speed of the decline is bound to set off alarm bells in
financial markets and increase criticism of the ECB for not cutting
interest rates.
Euro-zone Feb retail sales were up a feeble 0.1% on the month from
January and up 1.2% on the year.
In other news, Bundesbank President Welteke has reportedly said that
price pressures in the euro zone have declined in recent months, despite
some current inflation readings sending the opposite signal.
Meanwhile, Portuguese Finance Minister Pina Moura has warned of a
tough 2002 budget to fight inflation, and said the budget adjustment
process deepened this year.
EUR/USD remains within Thursday's range.
.
Its intraday outlook is mixed, with resistance in place from the 20-
and 200-day moving averages in place.
Support: 0.8891 (overnight low), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8695 (April 18 low; 4-1/2-month
low).
Resistance: 0.8925 (20-day moving average), 0.8932 (overnight high),
0.8944 (200-day moving average), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level
of the June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of
the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.9091 (April 5 peak), 0.9127 (March 21
peak), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October
downtrend).
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