4 May 2001, 15:26  US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar lower ahead of US jobs data (part2)

By Cornelius Luca
* EUR/USD managed to hold on to its limited gains despite the fact that business confidence in the euro zone took another plunge in April to an index reading of 0.36 from a revised 0.58 in March and 0.97 in February. The EU Commission said the
The news is not as bad as it seems, at least according to. It said "this fourth decrease of the year was consistent with industrial production progressively slowing down to its average between 1986 and 2000." But the speed of the decline is bound to set off alarm bells in financial markets and increase criticism of the ECB for not cutting interest rates.
Euro-zone Feb retail sales were up a feeble 0.1% on the month from January and up 1.2% on the year.
In other news, Bundesbank President Welteke has reportedly said that price pressures in the euro zone have declined in recent months, despite some current inflation readings sending the opposite signal. Meanwhile, Portuguese Finance Minister Pina Moura has warned of a tough 2002 budget to fight inflation, and said the budget adjustment process deepened this year.
EUR/USD remains within Thursday's range.
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Its intraday outlook is mixed, with resistance in place from the 20- and 200-day moving averages in place.

Support: 0.8891 (overnight low), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8695 (April 18 low; 4-1/2-month low).
Resistance: 0.8925 (20-day moving average), 0.8932 (overnight high), 0.8944 (200-day moving average), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.9091 (April 5 peak), 0.9127 (March 21 peak), 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend).

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