31 May 2001, 16:56  US FX Daily Outlook: Euro tumbles as ECB intervention fears wane (part 2)

* EUR/USD plunged to a 6-month low on sales of EUR/JPY and on rising confidence that the ECB will not attempt to rescue its currency with an intervention.
Comments from the ECB's Duisenberg and the Austrian National Bank's Liebscher largely eliminated the possibility of an intervention in the near term and prompted a bout of fresh EUR/USD selling.
Higher-than-expected Italian, Dutch and French PPI figures emphasized that the ECB cannot trim interest rates anytime soon at a time when the regional economy could use a boost.
Bank of Italy's Fazio said: that the country's public finances were worsening; that the deficit/GDP would come in over target; and that gave spending would have to be cut to reduce taxes.
The EUR/USD outlook remains bearish, with targets on the downside at 0.8372 and at 0.8368.

Support: 0.8462 (overnight low; 6-month low), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 low), 0.8368 (channel line declining since Jan. 25).
Resistance: 0.8570 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8724 (20-day moving average), 0.8909 (200-day moving average).

* Under the weight of EUR/JPY sales, USD/JPY fell to a 3-month low of 118.55 before profit taking lifted its back above 119.00. While the pair is following in EUR/JPY's footsteps, the main point here is that it has a hard time staying above 120.00. USD/JPY rebounded with help from its declining channel line at 118.55, but a dip below would spell a lot of trouble for the pair.
The outlook is mixed, with a bearish bias.

Support: 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.55 (overnight low; 3-month low; channel line), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 120.53 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 121.71 (20-day moving average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.57 (60-day moving average).

* EUR/JPY directed the traffic of its components as it dropped to a 5 1/2-month low of 100.45 on heavy Japanese repatriations. The intraday outlook is mixed to slightly bearish, but the near term remains bearish.

Support: 100.45 (overnight low; 5 1/2-month low), 100.00 (psychological level), 97.22 (Dec. 12 trough).
Resistance: 102.50 (200-day moving average), 103.13 (overnight high), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 106.19 (20-day moving average), 108.72 (100-day moving average), 108.86 (60-day moving average).

* GBP/USD only fell to a 2-day low of 1.4170 because the EUR/GBP collapsed to a new 6-month low of 0.5970.
The U.K. consumer confidence came at +2, up from +1 in April but well below the +5 figure at the start of the year. The Nationwide said house prices were up 0.8% for May and 7.7% for the year. The outlook is slightly bearish.

Support: 1.4170 (overnight low), 1.4074 (May 24 low; 6-month low), 1.3966 (Nov. 24 trough).
Resistance: 1.4266 (overnight high), 1.4256 (20-day moving average), 1.4322 (60-day moving average), 1.4402 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Nov.-Jan. uptrend), 1.4428 (100-day moving average), 1.4534 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally), 1.4666 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally).

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