31 May 2001, 16:56 US FX Daily Outlook: Euro tumbles as ECB intervention fears wane (part 2)
* EUR/USD plunged to a 6-month low on sales of EUR/JPY and on rising
confidence that the ECB will not attempt to rescue its currency with an
intervention.
Comments from the ECB's Duisenberg and the Austrian National Bank's
Liebscher largely eliminated the possibility of an intervention in the
near term and prompted a bout of fresh EUR/USD selling.
Higher-than-expected Italian, Dutch and French PPI figures emphasized
that the ECB cannot trim interest rates anytime soon at a time when the
regional economy could use a boost.
Bank of Italy's Fazio said: that the country's public finances were
worsening; that the deficit/GDP would come in over target; and that gave
spending would have to be cut to reduce taxes.
The EUR/USD outlook remains bearish, with targets on the downside at
0.8372 and at 0.8368.
Support: 0.8462 (overnight low; 6-month low), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 low),
0.8368 (channel line declining since Jan. 25).
Resistance: 0.8570 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8724 (20-day moving
average), 0.8909 (200-day moving average).
* Under the weight of EUR/JPY sales, USD/JPY fell to a 3-month low of
118.55 before profit taking lifted its back above 119.00. While the pair
is following in EUR/JPY's footsteps, the main point here is that it has a
hard time staying above 120.00. USD/JPY rebounded with help from its
declining channel line at 118.55, but a dip below would spell a lot of
trouble for the pair.
The outlook is mixed, with a bearish bias.
Support: 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August
1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.55 (overnight low; 3-month low; channel
line), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15),
120.53 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
120.55/121.55), 121.71 (20-day moving average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point
pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.57 (60-day moving average).
* EUR/JPY directed the traffic of its components as it dropped to a
5 1/2-month low of 100.45 on heavy Japanese repatriations.
The intraday outlook is mixed to slightly bearish, but the near term
remains bearish.
Support: 100.45 (overnight low; 5 1/2-month low), 100.00
(psychological level), 97.22 (Dec. 12 trough).
Resistance: 102.50 (200-day moving average), 103.13 (overnight high),
105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement
level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 106.19 (20-day moving average),
108.72 (100-day moving average), 108.86 (60-day moving average).
* GBP/USD only fell to a 2-day low of 1.4170 because the EUR/GBP collapsed
to a new 6-month low of 0.5970.
The U.K. consumer confidence came at +2, up from +1 in April but well
below the +5 figure at the start of the year. The Nationwide said house
prices were up 0.8% for May and 7.7% for the year.
The outlook is slightly bearish.
Support: 1.4170 (overnight low), 1.4074 (May 24 low; 6-month low),
1.3966 (Nov. 24 trough).
Resistance: 1.4266 (overnight high), 1.4256 (20-day moving average),
1.4322 (60-day moving average), 1.4402 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
of Nov.-Jan. uptrend), 1.4428 (100-day moving average), 1.4534 (50%
Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally), 1.4666 (38.2%
Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally).
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