By Cornelius Luca
New York, May 30 (BridgeNews) - The dollar opens the U.S. session virtually unchanged despite a further slide in French business confidence in May, a euro-zone April M3 money supply rise of 4.7% on year, and the collapse of the Alcatel-Lucent merger. Traders are looking for new leads, but they might need to wait for Friday's U.S. jobs data before pulling the trigger.
* * *
Euro/dollar and dollar/Swiss franc swerved quietly within their respective Tuesday's ranges, while dollar/yen and euro/yen managed to bounce from six-day lows of 119.93 and 102.40. Sterling/dollar slipped from a one-week high of 1.4245 and dollar/Canada reversed losses after slipping to a nine-day low of 1.5343.
Wednesday U.S. event agenda includes speeches by Chicago Fed Bank President Michael Moskow and Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert McTeer.
The U.S. session will likely be dominated by intraday speculation and options plays.

Current Previous Change Global Global
NY open NY close low high

USD/JPY 120.13 120.17 -0.04 119.93 120.62
EUR/USD 0.8557 0.8553 0.0004 0.8536 0.8593
EUR/JPY 102.80 102.76 0.04 102.40 103.60
GBP/USD 1.4205 1.4222 -0.0017 1.4195 1.4245
USD/CHF 1.7824 1.7818 0.0006 1.7765 1.7870
USD/CAD 1.5402 1.5376 0.0026 1.5343 1.5419
AUD/USD 0.5132 0.5173 -0.0041 0.5116 0.5206
NZD/USD 0.4175 0.4209 -0.0034 0.4172 0.4219
SP.1 1263.10 -5.40 1262.50 1268.00
ND.1 1824.00 -32.50 1822.00 1862.00

* USD/JPY bounced from a 6-day low of 119.93 in Asia to a session high of 120.62 but fell again in Europe to below 120.00, and its subsequent bounce in Europe lacked bite.
Japan showed signs of further weakening with business confidence dropping.
Japans leading economic indicator is likely to stay below 50% for three consecutive months. The IMF's Koelher said a weak JPY would strengthen exports but didn't advise the government to weaken the currency to boost the economy.
The outlook is mixed around the 100-day moving average at 120.34. Key support is seen at the 119.65 Gann 50-point pivot, which targets 119.15 and 120.15.

Support: 119.93 (overnight low), 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August 1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.80 (May 24 trough; 6-month low), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 117.75/118.75).
Resistance: 120.34 (100-day moving average), 120.62 (overnight high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 121.82 (20-day moving average), 122.58 (60-day moving average), 122.50 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00).

* EUR/USD managed to reverse light losses made in Europe but remained in an inside range. A rumored option expiry at 0.8540 comes into play at 1000 ET kept the pair stable near the session low.
EUR/USD had drifted upward overnight to 0.8590 on the back of the collapse of the Alcatel/Lucent merger.
There was no reaction to the euro-zone M3 figure. Euro area M3 money supply grew in April, in data for the first time adjusted to exclude non-resident holdings of negotiable instruments, by 4.7% on the year compared with 4.6% in March. On the old basis, without excluding the distortions it recently identified, it said growth was 5.2% on the year as against an upwardly revised 5.1% in March. March growth was originally reported at 5.0%.
French business confidence continued to fall in May, coming in at 104 and well below the analysts' expectations of 107.
Dutch central bank president and ECB member Wellink said the euro zone was not invulnerable to developments elsewhere. He also said he was not unhappy with the current exchange rate.
The EUR/USD outlook is mixed.

Support: 0.8536 (overnight low), 0.8480 (May 24 trough; 6-month low), 0.8401 (support line declining since Jan. 25), 0.8372 (Nov. 23 low).
Resistance: 0.8593 (overnight high), 0.8790 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October downtrend), 0.8848 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov. 27-Jan. 5 uptrend), 0.8744 (20-day moving average).

* EUR/JPY followed USD/JPY in decent two-way activity and reversed losses after marking a six-day low of 102.40 in Asia. The cross currency found good support from the 200-day moving average.
The outlook is mixed.

Support: 102.48 (200-day moving average), 102.40 (overnight low), 101.04 (May 24 trough; 5-month low), 100.00 (psychological level), 97.22 (Dec. 12 trough).
Resistance: 103.60 (overnight high), 105.80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of May 1999-October 2000 downtrend), 106.52 (20-day moving average), 108.83 (100-day moving average), 109.03 (60-day moving average).

* GBP/USD fell from a one-week high of 1.4245 before it had an opportunity to test the resistance of its declining 20-day moving average at 1.4262. The outlook is mixed.

Support: 1.4195 (overnight low), 1.4074 (May 24 low; 6-month low), 1.3966 (Nov. 24 trough).
Resistance: 1.4245 (overnight high), 1.4262 (20-day moving average), 1.4329 (60-day moving average), 1.4402 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of Nov.-Jan. uptrend), 1.4534 (50% Fibonacci retracement level of the Nov.-Jan. rally), 1.4436 (100-day moving average).