29 May 2001, 11:59 Europe FX Opening: Summary of overnight moves and what's ahead
London, May 29 (BridgeNews) - The following is a summary of overnight
moves since Europe's close, plus possible leaders for the session ahead:
KEY ISSUES:
* After pre-holiday pause Euro takes another look at the downside
* Intervention fears start to rise
EUR/USD on the slide again as EUR/JPY weighs
Heavy selling of EUR/JPY was at the centre of market moves overnight
as the pair were dragged down following heavy selling initially by
European and Japanese names and then by US. EUR/USD and USD/JPY have also
slipped on the back of the EUR/JPY moves, despite an earlier bout of JPY
weakening after a spate of JPY-negative data releases.
--EUR/JPY reversed 3-day gains, dropping from a 4 day high of 104.48
to 103.35 during the late US and Asian session. Heading into Europe, the
cross is down to 102.78 so far and looking vulnerable. Last Thursday's
101.04 will be a focus for some.
--USD/JPY had risen to 121.38 on the back of further signs that the
economy was weakening, before EUR/JPT sales pushed it back to a low of
120.61 then 120.38 heading into Europe. Japan's Minister of Economy, Trade
and Industry Hiranuma said Tuesday that Japan's industrial production data
shows the economy is weakening. Output fell a seasonally adjusted 1.7% in
April from March, the ministry announced earlier this morning. Hiranuma
also said he had urged the BOJ to consider ways to help small
corporations, but gave no details. Japanese average consumer spending was
down 4.4% in real terms for April, the first such drop since Nov 2000. The
market will keep an eye out for a US-Japan summit to be held in Camp David
on June 30. Japan's economic and fiscal guidelines will be outlined, which
historically sparks a period of JPY volatility. With this in mind, it was
interesting that 1-year JPY vols slipped to a 2001 low overnight.
--EUR/USD was also pulled lower from 0.8613 to 0.8536. Traders had
reported that the spectre of intervention had limited short selling of
EUR/USD. However, comments from Duisenberg to Monday's session of the
European Parliament seemed to lessen the likelihood of intervention. While
he reiterated that intervention was a tool at the central bank's disposal,
he said that the exchange rate was not a policy target. He added that the
bank was not in the business of surprising the markets (note last rate cut
timing...); inflationary pressures are to the downside; and, that the
bank's monetary policy was appropriate and would be vindicated by future
price stability. Also possibly weighing on the EUR were press reports that
Alcatel was nearing the $32 bn acquisition of Lucent. Even though the
proposed purchase will be made in stock, it could > precipitate heavy
capital flows if the US shareholders decide to liquidate European stock.
--The USD's strength against the EUR is also propping it up against
the CHF. The pair has climbed from 1.7743 to 1.7880. Cable has also slipped from
1.4217 to 1.4178.
--Some poor Australian data combined with EUR weakness brought AUD/USD
down from 0.5212 to 0.5164. Australia posted a trade deficit for April of
$9 million compared to a forecast $1 million surplus. Company profits fell
a higher than expected 3.3% for Q1. BridgeNews
© 1999-2024 Forex EuroClub
All rights reserved