28 May 2001, 11:08 OUTLOOK: Japan economic indicators for wk to June 1
TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given
by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this
week (compared with previous period data or previous estimate):
JAPAN APRIL UNEMPLOYMENT, Tuesday (8:00 am):
-- 4.7-4.9 pct (4.7 in March; consensus 4.8)
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote: "Industrial production is now
declining rapidly, hit by the downtrend in exports and, as might be
expected, the labour market is deteriorating as a consequence. The
unemployment rate is nudging up towards the psychologically important
5.0 pct level."
UBS Warburg wrote: "We foresee unemployment rising by 0.1
percentage point reflecting the continued decline in industrial
production and construction activity."
JAPAN APRIL JOB OFFERS-SEEKERS, Tuesday (8:00 am):
-- 0.58-0.62 (0.61 in March; consensus 0.60)
Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "The continued decline in new job
offers -- a leading indicator of the labour market -- suggests a
gradual deterioration in the employment situation. The job
offers-seekers ratio probably continued to edge down. Total employment
growth probably slowed on a year-on-year basis and seasonally adjusted
employment likely fell month-on-month."
JAPAN APRIL SALARIED HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, Tuesday (8:00 am):
-- down 4.2 pct-up 0.6 pct yr-on-yr (up 1.0 in March; consensus
down 1.7)
UBS Warburg wrote: "We believe that the April figure is likely to
return to negative year-on-year territory as spending on home electric
appliances looks to have weakened since the end of March."
JAPAN APRIL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT, Tuesday (8:50 am):
-- down 1.8 pct-flat mth-on-mth (down 2.1 in March; consensus down
0.9)
-- down 1.5-4.1 pct yr-on-yr (down 2.9 in March; consensus down
3.0)
UBS Warburg wrote: "It is likely that industrial production will
show around a 1.0 pct month-on-month dip. Sectors which have
accumulated inventories -- electric machinery, iron and steel, and
paper and pulp -- would likely be the main negative contributors."
Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "Given the sharp decline in
export volume and continuing stagnation in large scale electricity
demand, industrial production likely continued to sag in April by 1.3
pct month-on-month. Once again the METI forecast seems out of reach.
Shipments probably fell by around the same amount. Inventories likely
continued to pile up, though at a more subdued pace than in recent
months."
JAPAN APRIL HOUSING STARTS, Thursday (2:00 pm):
-- down 1.0-6.0 pct yr-on-yr (down 1.4 in March; consensus down
3.5)
Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "Despite low interest rates and
property prices, housing investment probably remained stagnant in April
on the back of long-term income concerns."
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