28 May 2001, 11:08  OUTLOOK: Japan economic indicators for wk to June 1

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The following lists the range of forecasts given by surveyed economists for key economic indicators to be released this week (compared with previous period data or previous estimate):

JAPAN APRIL UNEMPLOYMENT, Tuesday (8:00 am):
-- 4.7-4.9 pct (4.7 in March; consensus 4.8)

Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein wrote: "Industrial production is now declining rapidly, hit by the downtrend in exports and, as might be expected, the labour market is deteriorating as a consequence. The unemployment rate is nudging up towards the psychologically important 5.0 pct level."
UBS Warburg wrote: "We foresee unemployment rising by 0.1 percentage point reflecting the continued decline in industrial production and construction activity."

JAPAN APRIL JOB OFFERS-SEEKERS, Tuesday (8:00 am):
-- 0.58-0.62 (0.61 in March; consensus 0.60)

Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "The continued decline in new job offers -- a leading indicator of the labour market -- suggests a gradual deterioration in the employment situation. The job offers-seekers ratio probably continued to edge down. Total employment growth probably slowed on a year-on-year basis and seasonally adjusted employment likely fell month-on-month."

JAPAN APRIL SALARIED HOUSEHOLD SPENDING, Tuesday (8:00 am):
-- down 4.2 pct-up 0.6 pct yr-on-yr (up 1.0 in March; consensus down 1.7)

UBS Warburg wrote: "We believe that the April figure is likely to return to negative year-on-year territory as spending on home electric appliances looks to have weakened since the end of March."

JAPAN APRIL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT, Tuesday (8:50 am):
-- down 1.8 pct-flat mth-on-mth (down 2.1 in March; consensus down 0.9)
-- down 1.5-4.1 pct yr-on-yr (down 2.9 in March; consensus down 3.0)

UBS Warburg wrote: "It is likely that industrial production will show around a 1.0 pct month-on-month dip. Sectors which have accumulated inventories -- electric machinery, iron and steel, and paper and pulp -- would likely be the main negative contributors."
Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "Given the sharp decline in export volume and continuing stagnation in large scale electricity demand, industrial production likely continued to sag in April by 1.3 pct month-on-month. Once again the METI forecast seems out of reach. Shipments probably fell by around the same amount. Inventories likely continued to pile up, though at a more subdued pace than in recent months."

JAPAN APRIL HOUSING STARTS, Thursday (2:00 pm):
-- down 1.0-6.0 pct yr-on-yr (down 1.4 in March; consensus down 3.5)

Nikko Salomon Smith Barney wrote: "Despite low interest rates and property prices, housing investment probably remained stagnant in April on the back of long-term income concerns."

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