25 May 2001, 16:36 US GDP-OVERVIEW
--US Q1 GDP revised to +1.3% vs 2.0%
--US Q1 final sales revised to +4.4% vs 4.6%
--US net inventories subtracted 3.0 point from Q1 GDP vs -2.7 point
--US Q1 net inventory subtraction sharpest in 13 years
--US Q1 consumer spending revised to +2.9% vs 3.1%
--US net exports added 1.1 point from Q1 GDP vs +1.4 point
--US Q1 capital spending revised to +2.1% vs +1.1%
--US Q1 government spending revised to +4.7% vs +4.0%
--US Q1 GDP PCE price index revised to +3.2% vs +3.3%
--US Q1 core GDP PCE price index revised to +2.6% vs 2.7%
--Q1 GDP price deflator revised to +3.3% vs 3.2%
By Simon Kennedy
Washington, May 25 (BridgeNews) - Softer consumer spending, a bigger
reduction in inventories and lower exports left the U.S. economic
expansion weaker in the first quarter than originally thought. Gross
domestic product grew just 1.3% from January to March, the Commerce
Department reported Friday, below expectations of 1.4% and the
government's initial estimate of 2.0%.
* * *
Inventories were a larger drag on growth than first reported, knocking
3.0 percentage points off the first quarter expansion, the biggest such
subtraction in 13 years. In the advance report last month, inventories
subtracted 2.7 points from first quarter growth.
The drop in stockpiles will encourage those who believe that the
recent economic slowdown merely reflects a rebalancing of bloated supplies
with slack demand. The bigger subtraction may indicate that process is
well advanced, suggesting a near-term growth recovery.
New, weaker data on consumer spending growth was another reason for
the downward revision to GDP. Responsible for two-thirds of output, it
grew 2.9% having initially logged a 3.1% increase.
Final sales, which measure GDP excluding inventories, rose a revised
4.4%, below the 4.6% increase first recorded.
A third factor reducing growth was a larger-than-expected trade
deficit in March, which meant net exports lifted growth by 1.1 percentage
points in the first quarter. They added 1.4 points in the government's
advance report.
However, capital spending, a lynchpin of growth in recent years given
its productivity-boosting effects, rose 2.1%, stronger than the 1.1% gain
last reported. The Federal Reserve last week cited the outlook for
corporate outlays as a key concern when it cut interest rates for the
fifth time in as many months. Business spending on structures climbed
17.2%, after the 11.0% last reported.
The economy, which this year may not even manage to post half the 5.0%
growth rate of 2000, has been fading since last summer. It grew just 1.0%
in the fourth quarter. Most analysts link the deceleration to an unwinding
of outsized inventories and investment. High energy prices and a stock
market sell-off have also taken their toll.
The Federal Reserve has sought to combat such weakness by slashing
interest rates 2.5 percentage points since January, to 4.0%--the lowest in
seven years.
The Bush administration is hoping that easing of monetary policy and
lower taxes will boost the economy by the year-end. Treasury Secretary
Paul O'Neill has frequently referred to growth less than 3.5% as below
potential.
INFLATION
The report contained some poor news regarding inflation. The GDP price
deflator rose at a 3.3% pace and the consumer price index increased 3.2%.
The core consumer spending price index was up 2.6%.
WHAT WAS EXPECTED:
The BridgeNews survey of economists' estimates for GDP figure ranged
from up 0.9% to up 2.2%. The final sales projections ranged from up 4.1%
to up 4.8% with the consensus at up 4.4%. The PCE index was expected to
rise 3.3%, while the price deflator was pegged at 3.2%.
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